For his next trick, will Jaysus Powell walk on water? Prepare to be awed.
Meanwhile here’s a look at how the stock market sets up today.
Stock Market Trading Setup for Thursday, April 30, 2020
S&P Futures Daily Chart
The ES futures are down 22 at 2919 at 8:40 AM in New York. That’s still about 10 points higher than this time yesterday though. Yesterday’s breakout through major resistance at 2882 is intact. That theoretically is now support. If that’s broken, bears’ ball. Otherwise, bulls are still driving.
The market remains just below mid channel in an uptrend channel at a slightly lower angle than the previous meltup channel from the March low. The bottom of the channel is at 2840 today. The centerline is at 2950. If that’s cleared, this thing will really explode higher, with no meaningful resistance indicated below 3020.
Rate of Change tuned to an 8 week cycle looks toppy but not yet negative. Absolute level is still bullish. A downturn is due, but as long as the indicator is in positive territory, I wouldn’t get too bearish. I wouldn’t get too excited about the negative divergence either, unless the market turns down from here. Then it might mean something. But not yet.
MACD tuned to the same cycle has accelerated and is now above the level reached in the Q4-Q1 advance. Note that it stayed up there for 3 months before the market topped out. Ugly. I wouldn’t get bearish until this heads down and price breaks support.
Again, this is for the perspective of one day only. The purpose of these reports is not to divine the longer term. If you want longer horizons, join me at Liquidity Trader.
Hourly ES S&P 500 Futures Chart
The futures are plunging headlong for trend support at 2915 on the hourly chart. It is testing minor support at 2920. If these hold, the bullish trend remains in charge. If they break the next support levels and targets would be around 2903 and 2895. Then 2885, and 2878. Below that is air to around 2850.
The 5 day cycle projection is around 2850. Buckle up. Or down, as the case may be.
Momentum, True Strength and MACD tuned to a 5 day cycle are bearish, with plenty of room for more weakness. I noted yesterday that the 3 and 5 day “cycles are ideally due to peak today or tomorrow. This is a recipe for strength to continue through today’s Fed announcement–a classic faith in the Fed rally. Then we’ll see.”
I guess we’re seeing.
Reminder- I’m only talking patterns for a day here. This is not the big picture. If you want that story, you must subscribe. Risk free trial and all.
Join me on the Capitalstool.com message board today and I will update you there occasionally during the day. Feel free to join the “fun.”
“And that’s the way it is, Thursday, April 30, 2020.”
From coronavirus partly reopened, and earthquake-recovering Zagreb, Croatia, good morning!
Where have you gone Walter Cronkite? Our nation turns its lonely eyes to you.
Meanwhile, here are the latest reports from Liquidity Trader.
It may be. Here’s what to look for, and a few mining stocks to ride along the way.
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