The futures are pulling back this morning a day after Jaysus Powell channeled Mario Draghi and promised that the Fed would do whatever it takes to keep the US economy afloat.
He made a point of including screwing hardworking, honest grandparents who saved and avoided risk all their lives. Jaysus said, “Too bad, suckers! You lose.”
Liquidity moves markets!Follow the money. Find the profits!
Meanwhile, here’s a brief intro to these daily updates.
Yesterday I posted a more in depth analysis and outlook for Liquidity Trader subscribers where I cover the nitty gritty- charts, analysis, explanation, forecast and strategy recommendation. Check it out risk free for 90 days.
Wednesday, the Fed bought $7 billion in Treasury paper and $6 billion in MBS from the Primary Dealers. That’s a LOT LESS than they were doing a couple of weeks ago.
Still, stocks marched higher yesterday and Treasuries have held near their highs in prices, lows in yields. But this morning, futures traders in the ES saw an opportunity to lighten up. Stop back here in a few minutes for a look at the today’s technical setup and outlook.
Of the $13 billion the Fed bought yesterday, only the Treasury settlements are next day. The MBS won’t settle until mid May. They’re not an issue right now. They will be when all the prior forwards settle May 13-20. For now, the dealers only see $7 billion per day in cash from the Fed via the Fed’s Treasury purchases from them.
Notice that I said “only.” That’s because the dealers and their institutional customers need to absorb $241 billion in Treasury issuance this week. How the hell are they paying for that? This isn’t just this week. It’s every week.
The Fed pays for its Treasury purchases by depositing newly imagined money into the dealers’ bank/trading accounts at the Fed. The Fed is injecting around $40 billion into the market this week via these purchases. Where’s the other $200 billion to pay for the new Treasuries coming from? If stocks or bonds don’t sell off, it’s coming from the existing, and shrinking, pool of cash that the Fed pumped into in Primary Dealer trading accounts a couple of weeks ago.
The dealers can do whatever they want with that cash. They use some to buy their next allotment of Treasuries. The rest they use to accumulate other inventory, mark it up, and distribute it to their institutional sheep customers. But if the Fed isn’t replenishing the pool, Then the pool is being drained. It’s going into the US Treasury, and the Treasury then spends it to keep the US economy barely functioning.
The Fed has a new policy now. It’s “whatever.” Right now, it is standing pat on doing “whatever.” It’s just guessing. Reactive, ad hoc, week by week, seat of the pants, whatever it fucking takes, including screwing grandparents out of their life savings, fakery.
While it’s policy fakery on the grandest scale in history, the money that didn’t exist yesterday is real enough once it gets into dealer trading accounts.
And it’s real in the banking system when the US Treasury spends it. A mere trillion keeps the masses placated while the other trillion or so surreptitiously pads the pockets of the Regime’s plutocrat cronies and sponsors. They all get to have a good laugh with Trump at his next big soiree at Mar-a-Lago. When it reopens.
The Fed had scheduled purchases of $14 billion in Treasuries, and $8 billion in MBS for Thursday.
Sounds great, huh? But what’s that gurgling sound? Oh, it’s the Primary Dealers choking on new Treasury supply inundating them, while they’ve been busy buying and marking up ES futures and stocks.
How much excess cash do they have left? That’s the question. Because when it runs out, if the Fed sticks with these reduced purchases, this rally could get unwound really fast. But the reactive Fed won’t sit on its hands. If the market starts crashing again, the Fed will pump again. We could see some spine tingling market swings in the days ahead.
One of those days could be today. As you know by now, the US Treasury issues the debt that raises the money that the US government needs to pay for the Pandemic Pandemonium Panic Relief and Crony Pocket Padding programs. $105 billion of that settles today. Somebody has to pay for that. The Fed is only buying $14 billion.
If stocks don’t sell off today, then Jaysus Powell will walk on water next.
Get real time reporting, analysis and resulting tactical and strategic recommendations, at Liquidity Trader. Always illustrated with the famous real time Pandemic Pandemonium Panic QE chart, and other charts, with Lee Adler’s clear-headed, no punches pulled, straight dope you can’t get anywhere else. Here’s the last episode of that soap opera. Try it today with a 90 day risk free trial. Access to all reports, present, past, and future! Get caught up, and then stay in the know!