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Federal Excise Tax Data Shows No Obstruction, No Collusion

Federal Excise Tax data showed that the US economy was unobstructed in May. The data was not in collusion with the mainstream Wall Street narrative. That narrative, which virtually everybody believes, is that the US economy is weakening and the Fed will cut interest rates.

This report is partly an excerpt from the June 5 Liquidity Trader Report. First time subscribers get a one month free trial if you sign up by 11:59 PM Pacific Time, Wednesday, June 6. The first 90 days are risk free.

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Data from the May 31 Daily Treasury Statement showed that Excise Tax deposits rose 3.8% year to year, in May. That’s solid. It reflects unit volume, and therefore contains no inflation component. This data suggests that the Fed has no economic reason to ease monetary policy. It has no excuse to perform the Kabuki theater of cutting rates.

Withholding tax data, also covered in the Liquidity Trader report, was less clear. But even with that, it suggested that the ADP negative surprise won’t show up in Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report.

Federal Excise Tax Data Gives Fed No Excuse

This chart is limited to deposits of excise taxes only. Growth picked up in April and that trend continued in May, with a gain of 3.8%. May collections reached a record for that month. There’s no economic reason for the Fed to cut rates. In other words, there’s no obstruction to the economy that would give the Fed an excuse! And there’s no collusion with the fake Wall Street news spewed out by the Street’s media handmaiden.

Federal Excise Tax Collections Data

I can’t say that the Fed definitely won’t cut rates. But if it does, it won’t be because of a weak economy. It will be because Trump has intimidated Powell and the Fed gang, and is scaring the crap out of them with his behavior on the world economic stage.

Of course, if the Fed does cut rates, Trump will have gotten exactly what he wants, and it will only encourage him to act out even more.

Get the complete report with data, charts, and analysis covering excise taxes, withholding, corporate and individual income taxes, and the trend of Treasury cash. Subscribe by 11:59 PM Pacific Time Tuesday, June 4 and get the first month free!

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Lee Adler

I’ve been publishing The Wall Street Examiner and its predecessor since October 2000. I also publish, and was lead analyst for Sure Money Investor, of blessed memory. I developed David Stockman's Contra Corner for Mr. Stockman. I’ve had a wide variety of finance related jobs since 1972, including a stint on Wall Street in both sales, analytical, and trading capacities. Prior to starting the Wall Street Examiner I was a commercial real estate appraiser in Florida for 15 years. I was considered an expert in the analysis of failed properties that ended up in the hands of bank REO divisions, the FDIC, and the RTC. Remember those guys? I also worked in the residential mortgage and real estate businesses in parts of the 1970s and 80s. I have been charting stocks and markets and doing analytical work since I was a teenager. I'm not some Ivory Tower academic, Wall Street guy. My perspective comes from having my boots on the ground and in the trenches, as a real estate broker, mortgage broker, trader, account rep, and analyst. I've watched most of the games these Wall Street wiseguys play from right up close. I know the drill from my 55 years of paying attention. And I'm happy to share that experience with you, right here. 

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