Wall Street Examiner Exclusives

Wall Street Examiner exclusives

Here’s The Bad News That Nobody Is Telling You About The Record Lows In Initial Unemployment Claims

Employers Late To The 1973 Funeral - Click to enlarge

The headline, fictional, seasonally adjusted (SA) number of initial unemployment claims for last week came in at 267,000. The Wall Street economist crowd consensus guess close to the mark this week, at 272,000. We focus on the trend of the actual data Instead of the seasonally manipulated headline number expectations game. Facts tend to be more useful than the economic establishment’s…

Fed Is Not Just Behind The Curve, It’s Driving The Bus Over The Cliff

Actual Rent Versus Owner's Equivalent Rent- Click to enlarge

So the Fed didn’t raise rates again. And the timing of the rate increase will be data dependent. Ho hum. There’s just one little problem. The inflation measures the Fed watches really don’t measure inflation. The Fed won’t see what its cronies in the government and economic establishment refuse to measure, which is that we’ve already long since passed…

Will A Bear Market By Proxy Roll Out of China?

Macro Liquidity

The Composite Liquidity Indicator has been flat in recent weeks as it skirts the high set in January. Stock prices have mimicked that rangebound pattern with a temporary blip to the downside interjected last week.  The index is moving toward its 39 week moving average. The Fed has committed to “normalize” its balance sheet. While…

Case Shiller Is Too Slow- Here’s The Real (e)State of The US Housing Market Right Now

MLS Contract Prices- 55 Metros

The mainstream media reported the Case Shiller Index for “May.” I put that in quotes because the data does not represent the actual state of the market in May. Case Shiller represents the 3 month average price of repeat sales (not all sales, just houses that had sold previously) which were recorded by county agencies…

The What’s Wrong With This Picture Chart of the Month – Durable Goods

Capture

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Rise 3.4% in June blared the Wall Street Journal headline this morning. As usual, not only is that not the whole story, it’s misleading. It’s wrong. It’s dumb. It raises the question of why the mainstream media adamantly refuses to report the facts. More importantly, why do they ignore the blatantly…

Here Are The Facts That Show New Homes Sales Are Actually a Bust And ZIRP A Failure

New House Sales By Region- Click to enlarge

The seasonally adjusted (SA) headline number for the monthly-error-times-12-annualized version of new home sales in June was 482,000. Wall Street analysts had guessed that the number would be 550,000. The Wall Street Journal went into apoplectic excuse-making mode, almost foaming at the mouth to try to find pundits to explain away the bad number. The…

Here’s Why Initial Claims Show That This Time Really Is Different

Initial Claims and Stock Prices- Click to enlarge

Initial claims for unemployment compensation extended the string of record lows into its 22nd month this week. The mainstream media is reporting this as if the record low is something new. That’s because they look at the seasonally adjusted (SA) fictitious data only. The actual, not seasonally finagled number has been at a record low relative…

Mouthpiece Of The Mob Says Existing Home Sales Are All Good News

Home Sale Prices and Volume - Click to enlarge

The media dutifully reported the NAR’s version of seasonally adjusted, built-in monthly error times 12, annualized, officially recorded, home sales closings in June today. The housing industry cartel and lobbying behemoth said that houses are selling at an annual rate of 5,340,000 on that basis. Bloomberg enthused that, “Sales of previously owned U.S. homes climbed to an eight-year high in June…

You Need To See How The 1% Spends Wildly While Wall Street Suppresses Retail Sales Reports

Retail Sales Rise As The 1% Spends Its Stock Market Gains - Click to enlarge

Following the mainstream media reports on economic data is a waste of time for investors. It may have some value to traders, because the headlines give them an idea of what to fade. Most of the time any widely reported and widely accepted economic “fact” is almost certain to be wrong. Wizened traders have learned to do the…