Wall Street Examiner Exclusives

Wall Street Examiner exclusives

When Will The Fed Resume QE?

Shrinking Treasury Supply

This is an excerpt from the Liquidity Trader Pro Treasury Supply and Demand Report. Subscriber download links to complete report below.   Primary Dealers were sellers last week in both the coupons and the futures as they continued to hold larger long positions in Treasury coupons than they have for several years. Conversely, their long…

What You Must Know About Fed Minutes And Emanations From Jackson’s Hole

Composite Liquidity Indicator

This post is an excerpt from the Pro Trader and Monthly Investor MacroLiquidity report. Subscriber links are below the text. The FOMC meeting minutes are a key instrument of official Fed propaganda. They show how the Fed wants you to view policy. There’s some useful information there, but it’s not what the Fed says it…

With New Data Showing Housing Sales Slowing Here’s Why You’ll Want To Be In Cash

Housing Sales and Inventory

NAR data on housing sales showed the largest July decline since 2011, cutting the annual sales volume growth rate by 47% since March. However, while the growth rate is slowing, total sales volume was the heaviest for July since the peak of the housing bubble in 2005. Heavy but declining volume is a warning sign that…

If You Doubted The Central Bankers’ Brave New World, You Were Right

Ben Bernanke and his cohort central bankers built a Brave New World (SOMA, SOMA, SOMA!) where central bank money printing would boost stock prices and the wealth created would trickle down to workers and cause a booming economy. If you doubted that, you are now seeing proof that maybe this world was a little bit…

Low Rates, Low Inventory, and Raging Inflation Create The Fed’s No Win Housing Situation

Record Low Inventory To Sales Ratio

The NAR reported that the median US existing home sale price for sales that settled in July was $234,000, which puts the annual inflation rate for house prices at 5.6%. That’s softer than the June closed sale price inflation rate of 6.5% but still way above what the BLS is recognizing for the housing inflation component…

Here’s Proof That Core CPI Is Really +3%, Not +1.8%

Undermeasurement of Rent Increases Grows

The BLS reported today that Owners Equivalent Rent, a fictitious input to the CPI which, with the similarly formulated lesser item rent of primary residence accounts for nearly 32% of the total weight in the index, rose by 3% between July 2014 and July 2015, including a seasonally adjusted, fictitious +0.3% month to month in June. The BLS…

Here Are Three Big Reasons You Should Feud With The NAHB Homebuilders Housing Market Index

How Survivorship Bias Infects The NAHB Survey- Click to enlarge

The Wall Street Journal reported today that: U.S. Home-Builder Confidence Hits Near-Decade High “An index of builder confidence in the market for new single-family homes rose one point to a seasonally adjusted level of 61 in August, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday. A reading over 50 means most builders generally see conditions…