Posts By Lee Adler

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JOLTS Untold Story

Job Openings and Stock Prices

Buried several layers deep in the data beneath the headline economic numbers is always a story that the mainstream media never tells.  The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is no exception. The media used to ignore the JOLTS. Then they got wind of the fact that it was Janet Yellen’s favorite indicator, and…

Macro Liquidity Still Rising But So Is Market Friction

The stock and bond rallies went flat in August and bonds sold off in September as heavy Treasury supply and foreign sovereign liquidation of Treasury holdings created friction in the markets. Liquidity growth has been slowing, and while overall liquidity is still rising, the market response to rising liquidity has been diminishing as friction builds.

Employers Are Always Last to Get the News

Both excise tax and corporate income taxes have been declining persistently for more than a year. The fact that withheld taxes are one of the few categories increasing reminds us of my old adage, “Employers are always the last to get the news.” Historically, time and again employers have continued hiring for months after both…

New Home Sales Biggest Monthly Decline In History- A Warning Shot

New Home Sales Vs. Population

The Commerce Department reported today that sales of newly built homes posted a seasonally adjusted month to month decline of 7.6% to an annualized rate of 609,000. This was near the consensus guess of economists of 602,000 according to the Wall Street Journal. In terms of the game of pin the tail on the donkey-economists it was a non-event. The…

Falling Mortgage Rates Increase Buyer Subsidy But Don’t Stimulate Sales

Falling Mortgage Rates No Longer Stimulate Home Sales - Click to enlarge

There were two important releases on the US housing market today. One is the widely followed Existing Home Sales report from the NAR and the other is a lesser known but more in depth report from the online real estate brokerage The Wall Street Journal reported that “Existing-Home Sales Fall for Second Straight Month,” referring to…