Lee’s Free Thinking

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True Lies

Lies Lies Lies Follow the money. Find the profits!Liquidity is money. Regardless of where in the world that money originates, eventually it flows to and through Wall Street. So if you want to know the direction of the next big moves in stocks and bonds, just follow the money. Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader tracks and…

Fundamentals, News and the Market

We all hear from all possible stock market advisers and economists that the market discounts all news in advance, essentially validating the tradition to call news “newsnoise”. And I totally agree with that. However I also hear as many times that the market discounts  fundamentals well in advance. And here’s the problem. It turns out that many […]

The Real Unemployment Rate

Several years ago, before it became fashionable I began reporting here on the real unemployment rate, what the government calls the U6, which includes discouraged workers and those employed part time who want full time work but can’t get it. Lately the mainstream media has begun to notice this number, and over the past few…

A Look Behind The Numbers

by Chicago Bear (Stool Pigeons Wire- 10/30/09) Here’s what they said in the GDP report: The improvement in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected upturns in personal consumption, inventory investment, exports, and residential fixed investment and a smaller decrease in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by rise in imports, a downturn…

All about Program Trading

All you need to know about Program Trading but were always afraid to ask.
There is a lot of confusion on the internet about program trading and I have the impression that many people who seriously discuss it in fact are not directly involved in it. So what is program trading?

In the past, when you needed […]

Senate Finance Committee Chooses Moral Bankruptcy

The Senate Finance Committee has voted to kill the public option in the health care bill it is writing. At least if they ban insurance companies from rejecting people with “pre-existing conditions”, I and people like me who can afford coverage but can’t buy it, might have a shot at getting coverage. But how they…

The single Fed mandate

Every time I hear about the Fed dual mandate I feel it’s part of some kind of “find hidden words” game. The real thing is not what they say

The dual mandate says “maintain price stability” and “empower the maximum employment”. Immediately confusing, because I see nothing dualistic here. It never happened in history of any […]

Should I believe oil contrarians?

I’m very confused. Usually the press is a big contrarian indicator. For example the euphoria about economy makes me think that the stock market is a toast. But the abundance of bearish materials on oil (like this one) is very confusing. It would suggest that oil should keep going higher.

But I don’t believe that. You […]

Ben and China – the deal is done?

There are two stories that I’ve posted in my feed (the link at the navigation bar) – one is that China just made a bold statement about Ben printing money and another that monetary aggregates just turned into freefall mode (i.e. we are witnessing the start of the classic deflationary spiral).

What to make of that? […]