Even on a six-month cumulative basis, it is rare to find a negative number. These are reserved for the big ones, the market-shaking events that either perform an inflection or confirm one as it reaches pretty hard depths. The world being the way that it is, you just don’t see the whole forced into outright […]
What is Japanification? There are all sorts of ways to explain what the term can mean. The simplest is a single word, which for me is “sideways.” We live in a non-linear world meaning one where compounding is the biggest factor. Albert Einstein probably never said compound interest is the most powerful force in the […]
As economic data for 2019 comes in, the numbers continue to suggest more slowing especially in the goods economy.
Najib Tun Razak was elected as Malaysia’s Prime Minister in early 2009. Taking office that April amid global turmoil and chaos, Najib’s first official visit was to Beijing in early June. His father, also Malaysia’s Prime Minister, had been the first among Asian nations to open formal diplomatic relations with China thirty-five years before. Celebrating […]
QT. Bank reserves. Balance sheet normalization. They really are going through all the motions in 2019.
What most Economists “learned” from the Great Inflation was how important psychological factors had become.
During the first quarter of 2008, as Bear Stearns teetered on the edge of illiquidity, foreign holders of US$ financial assets contributed $9.3 trillion to US credit markets. According to the Fed’s Z1, the Financial Accounts of the United States, it tells us that’s the amount they held in possession from outside the American geographical […]
You know things have really changed when Economists start revising their statements more than the data. What’s going on in the global economy has quickly reached a critical stage. This represents a big shift in expectations, a really big one, especially in the mainstream where the words “strong” and “boom” couldn’t have been used any […]
You just don’t see $4 billion monthly retail sales revisions, in either direction. Advance estimates are changed all the time, each monthly figure will be recalculated twice after its initial release. Typically, though, the subsequent revisions are minor rarely amounting to a billion. Four times that? Last month, the Census Bureau reported that retail sales […]
Last August, the Senate confirmed Richard Clarida for both a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as well as to be installed as its Vice Chairman. Clarida had been chairman of the Economics department at Columbia as well as working for PIMCO where he had served the investment company as its Global Strategic […]