Jeffrey P. Snider

Factory Orders, Too

It stands to reason that if US demand for foreign goods is weak because of high inventory levels, then demand for domestic goods will be, too. As noted earlier, US imports are down this year after being substantially higher during the last half of last year. The same pattern to a varying degree is unsurprisingly…

The Damage Started Months Before Harvey And Irma

Ahead of tomorrow’s payroll report the narrative is being set that it will be weak because of Harvey and Irma. Historically, major storms have had a negative effect on the labor market. Just as auto sales were up sharply in September very likely because of the hurricane(s) and could remain that way for several months,…

The Construction Example

Construction spending rose slightly in August after two months of serious declines. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of $1.22 trillion, that’s slightly less than the estimate for November 2016 when “reflation” (sentiment) was at its apex. It’s a pattern that we see repeated throughout the economic accounts; some growth in the second half of last…

Three Straight Weeks of Fails Can’t Be Ignored

The Federal Reserve Bank of NY reported on Friday that repo fails for the week of September 20 were $359 billion (combined “to receive” plus “to deliver”). That’s the second highest weekly total of this year, following $435 billion fails recorded just two weeks earlier. The week in between those two was also high, tallying…

Non-Transitory Meandering

Monetary officials continue to maintain that inflation will eventually meet their 2% target on a sustained basis. They have no other choice, really, because in a monetary regime of rational expectations for it not to happen would require a radical overhaul of several core theories. Outside of just the two months earlier this year, the…

Yellen Is So Much Better, And Still Nowhere Near Good

I wrote earlier today that I believe Ben Bernanke one of the smartest men around. Whatever you might think of the usefulness of his career work, it is quite clear it was accomplished with some great talent. He occasionally offered some good, novel insight. I’m not so sure about Janet Yellen. While her trademark deer-in-the-headlights…