The US is going it alone. The rest of the world isn’t so synchronized like it was, purportedly, in 2017. No matter, at least for Americans. Even Europe, last year’s poster boy for what this upswing was going to accomplish, has thoroughly disappointed. The United States is just going to have to leave everyone else […]
Back in March, the Kansas City branch of the Federal Reserve stated the obvious. US home construction was stuck near the lowest level in the 60 years of records being kept. Despite a decade having passed since the prior bust turned to boom, and with the economy booming, it was apparently worth mentioning. Obviously, it […]
For the second consecutive month, retail sales recorded by gasoline stations surged by an annual rate of more than 20%. It was the fourth month in a row where sales have been up by nearly that amount. Last year’s jump in oil prices is feeding through in a number of ways. From headline inflation rates […]
Mario Draghi doesn’t have a whole lot going for him, but he is at least consistent – at times (yes, inconsistent consistency). Bloomberg helpfully reported yesterday how the ECB’s staff committee that produces the econometric projections has recommended the central bank’s Governing Council change the official outlook. Since last year, risks have been “balanced” in their […]
Over the weekend, another European nation turned toward the populist direction. It was enough to get one’s attention when Italy did it, but Sweden is something else altogether. The country has been long held out as an exemplar of everything that is right with globalization. They have industry, youth, etc. How in the world could […]
In the absence of a booming economy, one has been conjured from a select few employment statistics. But the facts tell a different story.
This year is just different. Increasingly so. Not just in one or two places, either, but in way too many places. In Japan, for instance, real Household Spending rose by the smallest amount in July, according to the latest estimates from Statistics Japan. In 2017, this would have been a worrisome sign. In 2018, it […]
Payroll Friday continues to be among the more absurd rituals of the finance industry. That’s saying something because in this business there are many that in any other context would be laughed out of the discipline. Never mind the impropriety of attempting to use a single monthly yardstick for economic progress, over the last four […]
Liquidity preferences are one of the least discussed economic concepts. There are several channels into which monetary instability can hamper the real economy. A “dollar” squeeze doesn’t just impact banks, they often pass it along further down the economic chain. In its most extreme form, we had something like 2009. Some of the best companies […]
You get the impression often that these guys have no idea what drives the dollar.