Jeffrey P. Snider

Another Key Economic Stumble In August Pointing Back At July

With all these warning signs pointing squarely back to the middle or end of July, it’s pretty clear that “something” changed the momentum maybe even direction of the economy’s reopening rebound. There’s also no question about what one key part of what might have been responsible, thus the quotation marks surrounding the word “something.”The federal […]

China’s Hole Puzzle

One day short of one year ago, on September 16, 2019, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported its updated monthly estimates for the Big 3 accounts. Industrial Production (IP) is a closely-watched indicator as it is relatively decent proxy for the entire goods economy around the world. Retail Sales in the post-Euro$ #2 context […]

Inflation Karma

There is no oil in the CPI’s consumer basket, yet oil prices largely determine the rate by which overall consumer prices are increasing (or not). WTI sets the baseline which then becomes the price of motor fuel (gasoline) becoming the energy segment. As energy goes, so do headline CPI measurements. And that’s a huge problem…if […]

‘Remains Structurally Unsound’

Does anyone remember “transitory?” I know I do. I spent years ridiculing the idea. But after 2019’s interest rate debacle, cuts rather than hikes, the Federal Reserve very quietly banished that particular word. This was, of course, during the course of the central bank’s “exhaustive” study surrounding its major inflation puzzle. “Transitory” had been the […]

ISM At A Job Cutting 56.0

Though there’s not much to add, it’s worth bringing this up again. In the era of gigantic positives, why aren’t sentiment surveys so much more positive than they are? It’s because these PMI numbers aren’t what you’re being told they are. After such a huge contraction, mid-50’s is a bomb; mid-50’s (the best ones) in […]

Seriously, This Isn’t Difficult

Where would humankind be if Enlightenment scholars had instead decided that each time they failed to validate an important hypothesis, the answer to said failure and the means to achieve progress was only in clinging to the same theory but restating it with even more conviction and greater emphasis?