Christopher Whalen

Desperately Dancing Sideways

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing.” Citigroup CEO Chuck Prince (2007)New York | Earnings have turned out to be a snoozer rather than the recession step down some gloomy souls predicted. Even if the economy is slowing, does it matter for earnings, which keep rising ever higher as net revenues stagnate? Our big takeaway from last week was the remarkable consistency in

Financials: “A sharp and painful correction”

New York | Once again it is time for earnings in the world of financials. Go back and compare the Sell Side view of financials at the end of Q2 ’18 with the narrative today. What you see is that the group basically has gone sideways for the past year. Peak gains for sector leaders like JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and U.S. Bancorp (USB) were about 5%, but both are down more than that amount since the great slide began in earnest in December.We can blame the sudden downdraft on various externalities and

Welcome to Brazil

Paris | Those of us who anticipated a quiet holiday break have been greatly disappointed. It is tempting to blame the electronic flatulence of the POTUS for the market selloff of the past few weeks, but in fact the credit for the great unwind must go to the members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

Are Leveraged Loans a Problem? Yes, and No. And YES

In this issue of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we feature a comment from our friend Ralph Delguidice, a veteran fixed income markets observer based in San Francisco. He provides important detail and context to the evolving credit dynamics of leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations (CLOs). San Francisco | December has been a cruel month for investors in “Leveraged Loans” as winter came in like a lion, early and cold.Primary and CLO spreads have exploded wider suddenly and loan

When the Bid Goes to Zero

New York | Volatile markets have finally made policy makers start to fret about excessive leverage and sky-high asset prices, two results of years of equally excessive monetary policy. Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, for example, worries from the speaking circuit

Dollar SuperCycle Ends

Housing, stocks and even the dollar currency have all experienced a dangerous bubble trend that continues to be created and driven by the Federal Reserve. Here’s what’s in store for the dollar… Christopher Whalen’s analysis reveals why they are more magnified than ever before…