We are filled with sadness watching members of the Sell Side trying to concoct a rationale for going long banks stocks in front of Q3 earnings.
After feasting for years on the “extraordinary” policy of the Federal Open Market Committee (aka “Financial Repression),” the banks are now getting squeezed in a deflationary vice.
China is ‘weaker’ than many in the West perceive, and that weakness in turn influences China’s actions. How does this play into what we are witnessing in the current trade war?
Central bankers have a dangerous “I am superman” complex.
New York – Happy summer. Much has changed in the markets since the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee several weeks ago. The target for short-term rates was cut a quarter point and, more important, the runoff of the Fed’s balance sheet ended, removing the tightening bias to US monetary policy. We had called loudly for the latter and discounted the former, most notably in a discussion on CNBC, so we view the FOMC action as the least that could be done given the political noise
Could it be that narratives in the mainstream media about China are not entirely accurate?
Noted financial author Nassim Nicholas Taleb has little patience for economists. With good reason.
New York | With the end of Q2 2019 earnings in sight, there is good news and bad news.
Avalon | We caused a bit of a fuss last week on CNBC by suggesting that the Federal Open Market Committee will not cut the target for Fed funds this month. We suggested instead that the Federal Reserve Board will first end the runoff of the System Open Market Account (SOMA) and then “wait and see” about any change in the rate target. Readers of The Institutional Risk Analyst know that we tend not to follow the crowd, especially when the data suggests that the narrative is at odds with actual
In the case of housing finance post 2008, the FOMC’s policies failed and they’re still failing.