Pro Trader Latest Reports for Subscribers

Market Setting Up For Top in July-August

The flattish uptrend has made it a tough environment for trading. Wave amplitude is likely to increase later this year, coincident with Fed balance sheet tightening. That increase in amplitude should be mostly to the downside. Market Update Pro subscribers click here to download the complete market update, including the proprietary cycle screens report in pdf format. Not yet a subscriber?…

Macro Liquidity Time Bomb Ticks Toward Zero

US macro liquidity has grown slowly over the past year.  Meanwhile, stock price inflation has surged, setting up a large divergence versus liquidity. It suggests that the market has become overextended due to excessive bullish sentiment. This is the mirror image of the oversold reading in February 2016. The difference today is that the Fed has announced that it will…

Fed Gets Real With the Boa Constrictor Approach to Tightening

This is a special report for all subscribers to Macro Liquidity, Federal Revenues and Treasury Pro Trader subscribers.  Back on April 18, I wrote: By late this year the Fed may have begun to implement its proposed policy of “normalizing” the balance sheet. That’s a nice way of saying “shrinking” the balance sheet. To do that the Fed is proposing…

Here’s Why Bullish Demand for Treasuries Is Setting Up The Sell Signal of The Century

Total Treasury auction demand has been generally stable over the past year, while in a long term downtrend. With stable demand and stable supply, yields have been stable, just above the long term lows set in 2012 and 2016. The supply side is about to become very unstable. While demand looks set to remain stable, supply will become radically unstable.…

New Long Term Cycle Projections Bad News For Bears

A significant intermediate term correction is due in the second half of this year, but long term projections say it won’t lead to a bear market yet. Here’s what could put bears in charge at least for the second half of 2017. Market Update Pro subscribers click here to download the complete market update, including the proprietary cycle screens report in pdf format.…

Posts from Other Publishers

Do Stress Tests Help Bank Stocks?

Q: Are the annual stress tests good for bank stocks?Early in 2009, when the Federal Reserve Board began the annual exercise of “stress tests” for banks, confidence in the US financial institutions was nonexistent. The year before, Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson almost single handedly cratered the US economy by embracing the creation of a “Super SIV” to buy bad assets from the largest banks.  Paulson’s ill-considered comment told investors that US banks like Citigroup (NYSE:C) were insolvent. 

The Best of Durable Goods

The status of durable goods in May 2017 appears to be up for debate. Once more there is major disagreement between the seasonally-adjusted figures and those unadjusted. In the estimation of the latter, May was a relatively good month for US manufacturing. Orders were up 7.3% year-over-year, the highest growth rate in nearly three years….