Yesterday’s explosion was the equity shorts blowing up. Before that was the Treasury basis traders blowing up. Liquidity is being destroyed in both directions. This won’t end well.
Yogi Berra famously said, “You can observe a lot by watching.” I’ve been watching markets since the late 1960s. As a young trader in the…
So, when does the Fed intervene?
WTF does that mean?
March closed with a +6.4% average gain per trade. YTD stands at +3.6%. No new trades this week as the model steps back from late-cycle signals — but the two open shorts remain in position and profitable.
The bear market is here. Structural support has broken across all major indexes. Lee Adler’s Cycle Wave model confirms full-cycle alignment to the downside. The April 6 Technical Trader report lays out the timing, structure, and exposure strategy for c…
This isn’t a recap. The breakdown is still unfolding—and everything I’ve done this year has pointed to it. The March 31 Technical Trader laid out…
Wall Street tracked sentiment and flows. Liquidity Trader tracked the dealers—those who make the market. And the cracks are visible.
Primary Dealer leverage has broken above 120% of Treasury and MBS holdings. Dealers are long, underhedged, and overe…
Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs mark more than a policy shift—they redefine how capital interprets risk. The Norrholm panel explores what happens when markets stop pricing efficiency and start pricing intention. Tariffs are no longer tools—they’re frameworks. This isn’t just a trade realignment. It’s the emergence of a new allocative order.
It looked right. It sounded smart. It was 500 billion dollars off.
This is what happens when you let AI write your totals.
Confession + warning inside