The patterns on the charts of T-bills and the 10 year note are unprecedented. Something terrible has happened in the market. The Fed will have…
The February supply increase caused the bond rally to stop in its tracks. But that will change in March. Subscribers, click here to download the…
With the light supply and the Fed money putting the wind at their backs, Primary Dealers got a gift on top of that. Coronavirus. The panic that induced has driven money out of stocks and into bonds. Just what they needed.
Dealers cut back their fixed income inventories ever so slightly over the past month. They also increased their hedges, but again, slightly. They are still near historical record net long positions, and still carry historic levels of leverage.
With a bulge in Treasury supply on the way, is this where the bond market might trigger them throwing up their hands and saying WTF, despite the Fed?
Supply and demand conditions for stocks and bonds have been as good as it gets over the past month. We can thank the Fed and the Treasury. Here’s what could keep the game going, and what could send the players home, broke.
Circumstantial evidence suggests that the Primary Dealers are in big trouble. The 10 year yield holds the key. Here’s what to look for. Subscribers, click…
The conditions were optimal for a big rally in Treasuries, but it didn’t happen, and that’s bad news.
The Wall Street captured media likes to tell us that there’s just a small plumbing problem in the money market. But the fact is that…
Treasury supply is gargantuan. But size doesn’t matter because the Fed can take it. And is taking it. Almost all of it. Subscribers, click here…
Private demand for US Treasury securities collapsed in September, forcing the Fed to first finance purchases, and then to buy Treasuries outright. The market is…