Review of May 8 Treasury Supply Report by Lee Adler This report stands out for one reason: Adler identifies what most overlook—and names it with…
Treasury auction demand looks strong — but it’s an illusion. Primary Dealers are faking demand at an unprecedented scale, hiding a collapse in real investment appetite. This Special Report by Lee Adler shows exactly how deep the rot runs.
Liquidity conditions are deteriorating in real time. Treasury’s cash balance has peaked. The drawdown has begun. With the debt ceiling still capping new borrowing, what’s…
The April 14 Technical Trader confirms what the model projected last July: the S&P 500 topped in the 6000–6200 range, right on schedule. A short-term rally is in play, but price and breadth momentum remain impaired. The next move will be determine…
The system isn’t stable—it’s quietly deteriorating. Foreign capital is pulling back. Liquidity is being recycled into deleveraging, not risk. The market hasn’t priced this in.
→ Get the full Macro Liquidity breakdown and real-time liquidity signals be…
Yogi Berra famously said, “You can observe a lot by watching.” I’ve been watching markets since the late 1960s. As a young trader in the…
March closed with a +6.4% average gain per trade. YTD stands at +3.6%. No new trades this week as the model steps back from late-cycle signals — but the two open shorts remain in position and profitable.
The bear market is here. Structural support has broken across all major indexes. Lee Adler’s Cycle Wave model confirms full-cycle alignment to the downside. The April 6 Technical Trader report lays out the timing, structure, and exposure strategy for c…
This isn’t a recap. The breakdown is still unfolding—and everything I’ve done this year has pointed to it. The March 31 Technical Trader laid out…
Wall Street tracked sentiment and flows. Liquidity Trader tracked the dealers—those who make the market. And the cracks are visible.
Primary Dealer leverage has broken above 120% of Treasury and MBS holdings. Dealers are long, underhedged, and overe…