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Category: Other Guys

Economic and and financial news and analysis from respected observers. Because I publish it, doesn’t mean I agree with it.

A Heavy Duty Recession Indicator

I was reading Bill McBride’s blog, Calculated Risk, recently and came across this post on heavy truck sales as a recession indicator. As Bill notes: Usually, heavy truck sales decline sharply prior to a recession.   Sales were solid in January. It certainly looks like sales do indeed peak before recession. But how long before recession? […]

Come Hell or High Water

Governor Waller suggests two significant changes to the Fed’s QT framework that effectively removes all obstacles to an extended QT. First, Waller suggests that the $2t in RRP balances should be consolidated with bank reserves when thinking of bank liquidity levels. This indicates that the Fed would be comfortable with bank reserve levels dropping below […]

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