Most people can be forgiven for suffering the misimpression. Some of it is intentional, as reflation – and those selling it – absolutely require a healthy Chinese contribution to reach their strong global rebound. As we’ve documented over the last decade, it almost doesn’t matter what numbers China’s economy actually puts forward, that system is […]
Mario Draghi’s sunset retirement festivities weren’t supposed to have gone off this way. Celebrated for his July 2012 “promise” to save the euro, he instead spent the entirety of his eight years as President of the ECB chasing inflation and recovery, the very things meant to accomplish the euro’s saving, without success. By the end, […]
A big splurge in September, and then not much more in October. While it would be consistent for many to focus on the former, instead there is much about the latter which, for once, is feeding growing concerns. Retail sales, American consumer spending on goods, has been the one (outside of economically insignificant housing) bright […]
At some point, the thing actually has to happen. You can only keep talking about the thing for so long before people start to get wise. And most people, especially those in the public who understandably don’t following the thing closely, or the things related to it, are incredibly patient. Time and time again, they […]
Where is it, Chairman Powell? After spending months deliberately hyping a “flood” of digital money printing, and then unleashing average inflation targeting making Americans believe the central bank will be wickedly irresponsible when it comes to consumer prices, the evidence portrays a very different set of circumstance. Inflationary pressures were supposed to have been visible […]
Europe’s problems are more immediate. Encouraging news about Pfizer’s vaccine won’t change the European circumstances in near enough time to avoid what’s more and more looking like a real possibility for a retrenchment. In this case, COVID cases are a primary culprit, meaning how authorities over there are responding to their rise. As such, it […]
The primary reason for that first rate hike in a decade in December 2015 was ferbus figuring that full employment had probably been reached, certainly close to where the unemployment rate had fallen at that time. The Fed’s main econometric model calculated this key economic level at between 4.8% and 5.0% unemployment; the actual rate […]
US GDP both nominal and real came roaring back in Q3. Posting its largest single quarter gain ever, and it’s not even close, the domestic economy appears to have surmounted the COVID obstacles as well as others imposed by Q1’s GFC2. These estimates are the most gigantic yet. By the numbers, real GDP was $18.6 […]
China’s Caixin Composite PMI came down a little bit in the month of September 2020. According to the latest update, the country’s manufacturing sector index declined by a small amount while services accelerated only modestly. Combined, the manufacturing side worked out to contribute more to the composite than services, so the score for last month […]
The Department of Labor attached a technical note to its weekly report on unemployment claims. The state of California has announced that it is suspending the processing of initial claims filed by (former) workers in that state. Government officials have decided to pause their efforts for two weeks so as to try and sort out […]
