Are You Kidding Me?
Can this be right? Did the stock market become oversold in mid October versus Composite Liquidity. This chart said that it did. And even after this huge 2 week rally, it’s still much closer to oversold than overbought. The S&P 500 is still near the bottom of the liquidity band.
It’s very similar to a look it had in July 2011. That preceded 4 years of a relentless, virtually unbroken bullish string.
What should cause us to expect change?
How could that be? I’m putting the finishing touches on a report that explains it, to be posted in Liquidity Trader in two parts. The first will be up early this morning, and the second a bit later this afternoon.
Meanwhile, back at the daily funhouse..
The TBAC’s quarterly borrowing schedules are central to us because they tell us the schedule of expected new Treasury debt issuance (supply), months in advance.
It’s an illusion. I am not out of sync. The market was out of sync. 😄
The chart pattern on the ES fuctures over the past two days is unintelligble gibberish. The November uptrend is broken, but a downtrend hasn’t been established. Instead the past two days have seen a messy, tight trending range of mini-cycles lasting less than a day. Great for trading 1 minute bars and not much more.
But here’s the thing.
It’s still bullish. Take a look and see why.
My longer term work has consistently led me to a bullish conclusion.
Stock Market Biden Time for the Bulls
My comments here pertain only to today, not to what I expect longer term.
The trading pattern in the ES fucutures since the close in NY yesterday is odd looking relative to recent weeks, and recent weeks have been odd looking. Make that recent months. The Fed has distorted the playing field.
The overnight gaps have been legendary. The legendary has become ordinary. If you’re not hedged by trading the fucutures 24 hours a day you are guaranteed an ugly surprise a couple of mornings every week when you get up and look at your screen for the first time at 6:30 AM.
There are signs that the 9-12 month cycle down phase could be much worse than I originally had hoped. This includes a new downside cycle projection that won’t make you happy, unless you want to accumulate at lower prices.
And other Magic 8-Ball lies.
I had had BA short on my Technical Trader chart pick list for weeks. Over the weekend, based on the chart, I decided that it was time to cover it and so indicated for Monday. By the time Monday’s open came around it was too late. What had been a modest profit opened as a painful loss. Yes, I had had buy signals. No, there was no sign that the stock would open 15 points above the established trading range. Orderly, liquid markets don’t work that way.
Tax collections improved in October, but are still well below pre-pandemic levels. The US may look like it’s recovering, but it’s still in the hole it dug when Covid19 first hit. That means that Fed policy isn’t likely to change any time soon.
But it needs to break down below 3512 before it means anything. Then the conventional measured move target would be 3370-75.