I recognized at the end of May that there would probably be no June swoon. There are still more than two weeks left in the month, but so far, so good. The 5 hour bar chart of the ES shows an orderly bull move that still appears to have some juice.
Shifting down to the usual 1 hour bar look, yesterday looks like a 5 day cycle high with some corrective action likely into Monday or Tuesday. 5415-18 is spport going into the New York open. That spport rises to around 5424 at the close. If that line breaks, there’s room for downside to the 5400-5405 area where the next spport line lies this afternoon.
If those lines hold, I’d expect a test of the high around 5447, but no breakout because of being on the weak side of the 5 day cycle until Monday or Tuesday.
There’s a big coupon settlement on Monday, but there have been enough T-bill paydowns to cushion the impact of that. Meanwhile, the RRP slush fund is rebuilding right on schedule, up $70 billion over the past week. May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish
| Date | Security Type | Total Offering | Total Publicly Held Maturing |
Net New Cash or (Pay Down) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/18/2024 | Bills | $200,000 | $214,948 | $(14,948) |
| 06/17/2024 | Coupons | $119,000 | $50,468 | $68,532 |
| 06/13/2024 | Bills | $246,000 | $249,987 | $(3,987) |
| 06/11/2024 | Bills | $200,000 | $214,973 | $(14,973) |
| 06/06/2024 | Bills | $200,000 | $212,002 | $(12,002) |
| 06/04/2024 | Bills | $200,000 | $204,981 | $(4,981) |
For moron the markets, see:
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Had the Plot, But Not the Right Actors June 10, 2024
- The Top Must Wait June 9, 2024
- Something Ugly Could This Way Come for Gold June 7, 2024
- May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish June 6, 2024
- After Growth in the Spring Comes the Harvest June 4, 2024
- June Swoon Called Off May 29, 2024
- The Fed Doesn’t Matter Any More May 1, 2024
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