The selloff yesterday got ahead of both the 5 day cycle downside projection of 4730-35 and the conventional measured move target of 4725-30. It was only a slight breakthrough so it may not mean much. But if the drop extends this morning, then the alternative view would be that this could be the start of something big. Because when prices leap ahead of projections, that’s usually a sign of thrust that will leave a residual effect. In that vein, this morning could give us an important tell about what lies in store for the next couple of days.
The chart of the hourly ES, 24 hour S&P futures is making a double bottom as of 8:25 AM ET. But the hourly oscillators are slightly below the last low. That suggests more downside before the final low of this swing. On the other hand, I have no basis for that in terms of projections on any time frame. A bounce may come first. If it’s puny, then I’d look for another breakdown before a bigger rebound.
Over in the bond market, the decline in the 10 year yield has bottomed for now, but they need to clear 4.10 to get bearish trend toward higher yields going.
For moron the markets, see:
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Starting the New Year with a Bad Idea January 3, 2024
- Now, Take a Deep Breath January 2, 2024
- Macro Liquidity – The Party’s Over January 1, 2024
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Buying The Lagging Dogs December 20, 2023
- Dealers Stay Extended December 16, 2023
- It May Be Gold, But It’s Not a Given December 15, 2023
- Tax Revenues and Liquidity are Crashing December 4, 2023
- This Chart Tells Us Exactly When the Bull Market Will End November 26, 2023
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