The market has flipped and flopped wildly since October 10, like a fish out of water. Which way it goes next is anybody’s guess. But it has successfully digested a deluge of Treasury supply over the past couple of days and stocks haven’t buckled. There’s no new supply scheduled for settlement until next Tuesday. That quiet environment may not boost stocks but if $100 billion in new supply last week didn’t send them plummeting, then the supply vacuum this week would argue for some levitation. Dealers Pull In Their Horns
The hourly chart of the ES, S&P futures supports that view, and will especially if it gets base 4371 this morning in the early going in New York. Then a move toward the 5 day cycle projection of 4400 would be in order. And then, if they can hang around up there for a few hours, breakout city at the end of the day. Cycles Still Lean One Way, Not t’Other
For bears to have any shot at all, first they would need to break 4357, then 4347. Failing that, we’d need to avoid bets on that side, and shtick mit der longs.
Meanwhile, if players use their cash to buy stocks, it will likely mean selling in bonds. The 10 year yield now has a very short term cycle projection of 4.95. Primary Dealers signaled big trouble back in July and they haven’t deleveraged enough yet to alleviate the problem that they, and thereby the markets, face. Dealers Pull In Their Horns
Meanwhile, this morning gold has cleared both its downtrend channel and the 200 day MA. Daily cycle oscillators look bullish. If this sticks the metal could be on its way much higher. And if it doesn’t stick, it would probably mark the end of another false hope rally. When the Market Is Ready, an Event Will Appear
For moron the markets, see:
- When the Market Is Ready, an Event Will Appear October 16, 2023
- Cycles Still Lean One Way, Not t’Other October 15, 2023
- Dealers Pull In Their Horns October 14, 2023
- Veal Market – Baby Calves Get Slaughtered October 9, 2023
- Gold Breaks Down, With Long Term Implications October 5, 2023
- Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply October 4, 2023
- The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023
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