Over the past couple of weeks I have been calling the pattern forming on the chart of the S&P 500 and the ES 24 hour futures for that esteemed index, as The Big Low. First On the Lookout for Big Low, and this past weekend, The Big Low. That “Big Low” is now in the process of becoming the Big Base, which you can see on the 2 hour bar chart of the ES.
As I pointed out yesterday, a breakout through the baseline of 4333 would result in a conventional measured move target of 4460-65. That breakout is under way, but not yet secure. It needs to stick this morning, then extend, in order to be complete. If they hold above 4333, look out for another meltup. The key to that looks like 4350. Below that, this move can stay mushy. But if they clear that, buckle up.
Otherwise, another pullback would be likely to 4315-25 for starters and perhaps much deeper.
I also posted some swing trade chart picks for the long side, if you are into that kind of thing. But beware, I’ve been wrong, or at least way too early for the past 3 weeks. Veal Market – Baby Calves Get Slaughtered
Over in fixed income land, I recently pointed out that a short term yield top was probably in at the target of 4.90 on the 10 year Treasury yield. It got close enough, and the expected pullback is in process. How far? Not very. Another yooge coupon settlement is coming up. Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply
The chart suggests a pullback to at least 4.50-4.55, but if the decline stalls here, look for much higher much sooner.
Meanwhile, Hamas attacked Israel just as Dover Sole gold had reached a downtrend support line. It was perfect timing for triggering an Dover Sole rally. Will it be more than that? Gold Breaks Down, With Long Term Implications
For moron the markets, see:
- Veal Market – Baby Calves Get Slaughtered October 9, 2023
- The Big Low October 8, 2023
- Gold Breaks Down, With Long Term Implications October 5, 2023
- Tepid Tax Collections Mean It’s the Supply October 4, 2023
- Screen Picks – Definition of Insanity Exemplified October 2, 2023
- Gold Breaks Down, With Long Term Implications October 5, 2023
- The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023
- Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers August 24, 2023
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