October has a reputation for crashes and bottoms. Bears are fervently hoping for a repeat. Prime Time for Danger and Opportunity But it doesn’t look like will start early. The hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P fugutures is looking pretty bullish, after breaking out of a nice little bottom pattern yesterday. That pattern had an initial conventional measured move target of 4335. The 5 day cycle projection points to 4350-55.
Trend resistance comes down to around 4350 early in the premarket and then around 4345 in the first hour in New York. Then they should pullback or churn around for a few hours, and we’ll see what the bulls have left. If they push through that trendline this afternoon, say Kaddish for the bears. In fact, even clearing 4335 would result in a conventional measured move target of 4420.
Dear friends, we are gathered here today…
For ideas on what to play if this goes long bonkers, here are a few suggestions. Too early on Tuesday, but the early bird catches the falling sword. Screen Picks – Still Longing for a Bottom
Over on the bond bloodbath side, where anyone reading my research for the past 3 years certainly isn’t surprised, we find the trend is your friend meme personified. The Rhymes of History
Again, I remind you that basic liquidity analysis has kept us steadfastly bearish on fixed income securities for the past 3 years. That will only change when the Fed starts buying in size again. Not just ending QT, but doing QE in size. Meanwhile the only people who should be buying Treasuries are those who can afford to just sit there and clip the coupons until the paper comes due and you get your principal back. Admittedly, the principal won’t buy as much as before, but in the meantime, you’ve been compensated.
Meanwhile, economic bears keep bleating that this is the top in yields. They’ve been saying it since time immemorial and they’ve been wrong. Lacy, is that you?
Moron.
It’s the supply, stupid. And that’s never ending, until they raise taxes to pay for the stuff that the public wants. This American policy of never raising taxes to pay for the public good is insane. Other governments manage to balance their budgets. They spend AND they collect the taxes to pay for that spending. The US spends and then borrows from the future and the rest of the world now to pay for its current spending rather than raise taxes to pay as you go. Something that we could easily afford.
So now, instead of doing the right thing, the right wing extremists in Congress want to drastically cut support for the poorest and least able among us to save a few pennies that won’t make any difference in the big problem. And of course Kevin the feckless leader, goes along.
It’s bullshit.
For moron the markets, see:
- Screen Picks – Still Longing for a Bottom September 26, 2023
- Prime Time for Danger and Opportunity September 25, 2023
- The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023
- Gold’s Flat Squeeze Tightens September 21, 2023
- Screen Picks – An Awful Week, But Hold On a Minute! September 18, 2023
- Here’s Why This Stuck Market Is Not Surprising September 13, 2023
- Beware! Jobs Really Much Weaker Than They Say September 4, 2023
- Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers August 24, 2023
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
