Weeks ago I began ruminating in my real work, that being Liquidity Trader, and in this case the Technical Trader reports, whether the coming 6 month cycle low would be a nice soft rounded bottom, or a vicious, violent V. There’s really no way to know until the process is under way. I bet on the benign, despite warnings from my liquidity research that a very significant top was forming.
Well, now we know. V it is. Victory for the bears. Vomit for the bulls. Early bottom pickers (comme moi) have gotten bombed over the past few days. You pays your money and you takes your chances.
I am pleased that my liquidity analysis did show as early as July, the beginnings of an important stock market top. It has also led to a consistently and relentlessly bearish conclusion about the bond market. There’s no way around the fact that until the Fed gets back into the business of buying Treasuries in massive size this won’t change. Bond fund holders are doomed. If you are rich enough to buy them outright and hold them until they mature, then you don’t need my research or anyone else’s. Clip those coupons baby!
Do they still have paper Treasuries with coupons?
In today’s news, the Phillies are back in the playoffs and the Eagles are 3-0. I don’t know whether this is bullish or bearish. But I’m happy tonight. I’m not fearing any man because I have seen the promised land. It’s a roast pork sandwich shop in S. Philly near the stadium complex.
As for the secondary matter of today’s market, 4260 was the number to look for on the 5 day cycle projection. 4270 on the 2-3 day. Been there, done that, and there’s a big positive divergence on the hourly oscillators on the ES, 24 hour S&P futures. So it looks like a bottom. But I said the same thing yesterday. Fool my once shame on you yadda yadda.
Make no mistake what happened yesterday was a new bear market confirmation signal.
But the first leg is well advanced. Prime Time for Danger and Opportunity
As for swing trades, I will probably try- buy a few on the dip. But I’m pretty bloody from yesterday. Can I muster the stupidity to try again? If I do, I will hold with tender fingers, dripping with the fat and juice and fixins of a DiNic’s Roast Pork sandwich. A sandwich that was once a pig. And now you know the rest… of the story.
As for the bond market, permit me to repost my now world famous Hindenburg Omen chart of the TLT that I first published 18 months ago. The Rhymes of History
For moron the markets, see:
- Screen Picks – Still Longing for a Bottom September 26, 2023
- Prime Time for Danger and Opportunity September 25, 2023
- The Rhymes of History September 24, 2023
- Gold’s Flat Squeeze Tightens September 21, 2023
- Screen Picks – An Awful Week, But Hold On a Minute! September 18, 2023
- Here’s Why This Stuck Market Is Not Surprising September 13, 2023
- Beware! Jobs Really Much Weaker Than They Say September 4, 2023
- Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers August 24, 2023
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
