As a prognosticator, I know all too well that saying, “I told you so,” is a sign of hubris that will come back to haunt you. Because the feeling usually sets in right around the time that the market is about to bite you in the ass.
Why am I writing this now? No reason.
I’m now in an apartment in Malmo, Sweden because Bruce Springsteen drove hotel room prices to the equivalent of his concert tickets just across the Oresund in Copenhagen. I arrived in Copenhagen by ferry from Oslo this morning. And, as forecast, it was smooth sailing. Now that I am safely off the boat and on dry land… well, not dry, but land… Where was I? Oh right, smooth sailing. See, I told you it would be. Great big ship cuts through choppy waves like a hot knife through soft buddah.
So now, the ES 24 S&P fucutures are sitting on the verge of another base breakout on the hourly chart. If it clears 4460, the conventional measured move target would be 4540. The current 5 day cycle wave has a projection of 4460. That makes the idea of a breakout a maybe, maybe not on this move. But even if it fails, if the index sticks around 4435 or more over the next couple of days, then more upside would become likely.
Wait. WTF, just happened?
Buyback Schmieback.
12 hours ago, potatohead said:Lee, What is your opinion on the Treasury buyback program in 2024? https://www.marketwatch.com/story/treasurys-2024-regular-buyback-plan-faces-extreme-skepticism-at-jefferies-c7967d02
It’s a joke. They’re buying back with one hand and issuing with the other. They’re simply flipping maturities. Doesn’t change the amount of money in the system one iota. It’s another name for Operation Twist. But why? They’ll exchange low cost debt for high cost?
I have no idea what they hope to achieve.
Maybe it’s a back door insurance and pension fund industry bailout. I don’t know.
For moron the markets, see:
- One Small Step For Gold, One Giant Leap for Goldkind July 11, 2023
- July Starts Ugly After Fabulous June July 10, 2023
- Stocks Are Scraping the Ceiling July 9, 2023
- Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22July 6, 2023
- Golden 13 Week Cycle Turn and Other Hopeful Signs 7/5/23July 5, 2023
- It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023
- We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023
- The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023
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Updates:
CPI ey ey.
QT works, QT is good.
