No that is not a political statement. Although it could be. Sadly. It’s about the bulls, and the direction of the market.
The flat squeeze goes on. Not that we should be surprised. There’s been plenty of liquidity around over the last month, but traders have just been sweeping back and forth through this cleaned out range. Nobody wants to risk cash above resistance, and bears are covering their shorts when the market pulls back to sport levels.
It is, after all, sport.
In the very short run, where our focus is on this thread, why should we expect anything to change? Uh, no, we shouldn’t. In the big picture, it will change, but here and now, not likely. Yet.
In terms of today’s outlook, the 5 day cycle on the ES 24 hour S&P fuctures has been running 4-6 days, which is normal variation. The cycle entered and up phase after yesterday’s late selloff. That up phase could top out any time from today through Monday. There’s a 2-3 day cycle projection of 4175. It’s iffy, but the hourly cycle oscillators started the move from near the zero line, which usually translates into a big move. So I’m thinking second wind coming. If they clear 4158, look out above.
I won’t bore you with what bears need to do to get anything going. The chart is clear about sport line after sport line below where we are now as of 5:30 AM ET. If they test the high and roll over, with cycle oscillators turning down from below the prior peak then we can talk.
Meanwhile, bond land is loving it some 3.20 to 3.60 on the 10 year. The permanently low plateau goes on. Here’s what should happen. Be prepared.
Attention gold fans! Should we be worried?
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
For moron the markets, see:
- Swing Trade Chart Picks – Buy Side Wins This Week May 8, 2023
- There’s One Key this Week to the Stock Market Outlook May 7, 2023
- Gold Is on the Brink May 5, 2023
- Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
- The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023
- Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023
- Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023
- The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
