The ES 24 hour S&P futures came down to test the April 26 low yesterday. The test was successful, but for a couple of glitches. First, it made a slightly lower low. Second, there were no positive divergences on the hourly oscillators. Typically that means that there’s more downside ahead.
But for now, the 5 day cycle projection of 4060 was blown out yesterday and hourly oscillators have turned up, suggesting an up phase in that cycle. Ideally it would last until Monday. To be anything more than a dead cat bounce, it would need to clear 4100 today. Otherwise, a near-term breakdown below the lows would become more likely.
This looks like a big bottom on the hourly, but let’s zoom out to 4 hour bars. Looks more like a big top, which would be appropriate for this circus. For the big picture, check out my Technical Trader reports. Next update coming this weekend while I’m on the train to Paris.
By the way, today’s Bureau of Liar Statistics Nonfarm Payrolls report should be really shitty.
Bond journee! The Big One is Coming
LEE ADLERWithholding tax collections through May 2 have been much weaker than the year ago period, and weaker versus last month. This does not bode well for the budget deficit. It suggests that there could be be more Treasury supply than forecast by the TBAC. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
It also suggests a very weak jobs report for April assuming that the BLS doesn’t adjust the weakness away in the various statistical tricks it applies to smooth the data. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
That’s never a safe assumption, but sooner or later reality catches up with them. Last month’s report should have been weaker than it was, based on March tax collections. The BLS reported 236,000 new jobs in March. Based on withholding for March, that number should have been zero or negative. There was no improvement in April, so this should be the month where reality catches up with them. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
If it does, the R House Majority will have absolutely no incentive to reach a deal to raise the debt limit. The worse they make the Administration look, the better it will be for them politically. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Meanwhile, Madame Secretary has warned us that the drop dead date for the debt limit is June 1. Supposedly that’s when the Treasury will run out of money. I did a few back of the envelope calculations, and it is completely plausible that they’ll run out of cash by the end of May. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
You’ll want to see the ugly details so that you can be prepared to take the appropriate steps to protect yourself, and even profit from the situation. Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Non-subscribers, click here for access.
Subscribers, click here to download the report.
KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING NOW, before the Street does, read Lee Adler’s Liquidity Trader risk free for 90 days! Act on real-time reality!
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
For moron the markets, see:
- Weak Real Time Withholding Taxes Set Up a Showdown May 4, 2023
- The Big One is Coming May 3, 2023
- Don’t Go Short if This One Thing Happens May 1, 2023
- Swing Trade Chart Picks – The Future is One Word – Baking Soda April 26, 2023
- Gold’s Lost Luster Will Shine Again April 25, 2023
- Enjoy the Market Mirage Now Because We’re Really In a Desert April 24, 2023
- The Fed’s Circle Jerk, is ‘Twerking? April 18, 2023
- Here’s How We Know That Doom Has Already Arrived April 6, 2023
- Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023
- How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023
- Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
- Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
