Now all they need to do is break it. So far, as of 5:30 AM ET, they’re not quite there. They did managed to edge below yesterdays neckline at 4124, but I’d want to see an hourly close below 4113 before getting excited about meaningful downside. As of now, if the break of 4124 sticks, the measured move implication would be a target of 4080. On the other hand, an hourly close above 4128 would relegate this to another false hope tease play for bears.
If they break 4113, that would measure to around 4060. In fact a move to 4080 would be enough to break the uptrend that began in mid March. But if they don’t break 4113, then none of this speculation about how low can you go would matter. The next question then would be “how high?”
At the moment, the 5 day cycle projection is 4110. Another cliffhangah!
7:25 AM ET:
Another false alarm, apparently.
Meanwhile, the 10 year. Treasuries have been rallying (yields lower) since yesterday. If it breaks 3.54, then the n3xt target would be the trendline at 3.51. As I pointed out yesterday, there’s a deluge of cash coming into the Treasury market that should fire up a bid for bonds over the next couple of weeks.
This is just the beginning of the accounting for the tsunami of cash that came in on Tuesday. There’s more to count.
If they drop it below 3.55 here, it would measure to 3.44. But if they don’t break 3.55, then something is very, very wrong. Trouble brewing.
Over in the Precious Metals coal mine, the bird’s are singing, and it looks like Git Along Little Dogies. It would be surprising if there’s follow through. At least in the short run.
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