14 hours ago, SiP said on the Capitalstool message board:
Making money on the markets in my opinion is getting harder and harder, or is it getting easier? It depends how you look at it.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t matter how much time I spend analysing the news, data from the economy, following twitter, gurus, or even liquidity analysis that nevertheless assumed declines or at least a difficult period for the markets in the last months. I hardly know people who have made a shit load of money since October 2022.
To me the only rule is – trade what you SEE, f. the rest and what you THINK. Which is mega hard. I read a news about bankruptcies, upcoming recession, banks and CRE problems and what the market did? Well, you you know.
WTF?! its really hard for me to find the logic here. just plain TA. Nothing more, f. the rest
Really. There’s nothing to add.
Well, maybe the fact that the US Treasury is pumping $55 billion in cash into the accounts of various dealers, investors, and others in the week of April 4-11, with more to come throughout April. Maybe that matters.
Meanwhile, in the here and now, the ES 24 hour S&P futures have bounced off the bottom of the uptrend channel on the hourly chart, now in its 9th day. This is consistent with a 5 day cycle upturn that’s ideally due to top out on Monday or Tuesday, depending on whether or not Good Friday counts. If this thing clears 4092 this morning, the next step should be 4107, then up, up and away if they get through that. If that happens, then on Monday we’ll all say, “Look, it is risen!”
Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield has edged to a new low in the massive 6 month top pattern. But it hasn’t broken down because the neckline is ever so slightly descending. It’s at about 3.24 currently. If it breaks down, the conventional measured move target would be 2.24. That would go a long way toward a self mitigating banking crisis. But such a move would have a horrendous corollary in stocks. But the timing of that won’t be concurrent. It will be more of a delayed reaction.
The short term cycle projection is 3.05, which implies that yes, a breakdown is coming.
Living in Europe on a US dollar income, I was very happy when the doolah was soaring and the yeerow was sliding.
Now, not so much. Currency pair value trends are always a matter of relative central bank policy, for example whether the Fed is printing more than the ECB, or vice a versa. Or in the recent months, which is tighter, i.e. which is pulling more money out of the worldwide sea of money (aka liquidity).
In the current situation, the more emergency printing the Fed does relative to the ECB, the more dollars will be around relative to euros, and the stronger the euro will be against the dollar. I have bought some euros in recent months, but not enough. Now the question is whether to average up. Is this situation of the Fed being easier than the ECB temporary, or long term. I don’t have the answer. I suspect that it will see saw, so maybe I should pay more attention to the daily TA.
Now let’s take a longer term view of SafeCoin, fka Buttcoin. The BDC (Bank Diarrhea Crisis) has changed everyone’s perspective on BTC, including mine. If you buy it through an exchange, you’re still at risk. There’s hacking risk. There’s the risk of forgetting the password to your BTC wallet. There’s AI risk. I mean what if it takes over the world. We’re all dead, right? So there’s that.
But in terms of big money looking to get out of the banking system, this is another underground parking lot where the only thing you might need to worry about is the occasional smash and grab. Or at least some people see it as a safe parking place. So it broke out of this big saucer base, with a price target of 34-35k. THe 9 month cycle projection is 32-33k. Take that FWIW.
I’ve never been much of a gold bug, but I think I’m getting religion. Again, great way to avoid the banks, right Bob?
But also technically, muy interesante! Update on this coming Tamara.
Also coming up at Liquidity Trader, an update on real time Federal Tax Collections including the data for March, in particular Withholding taxes. No need to guess what the US economy is doing. We have the tax collection data through yesterday.
For moron the markets, see:
- Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023
- First, the Rally, Then … April 3, 2023
- Gold Takes a Breather Before Lunar Launch March 30, 2023
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Traders, Take Your Naps March 29, 2023
- Watch Out For This If the Market Comes Unstuck March 27, 2023
- How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023
- Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
- February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023
- Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
- You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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