That pullback was probably just the 5 day cycle down phase, with the cycle low at yesterday’s low, tested this morning. The ES, 24 hour S&P futures, only need to be above 4105 at mid day today to break the mild downtrend and indicate a new 5 day cycle up phase.
On the other hand, if they manage an hourly close below 4085, that would complete a nice little top pattern. The conventional measured move implication would then be 4035. That, in turn would break the 8 day uptrend channel. In view of the US Treasury pumping $55 billion in cash into dealer, investor, and other accounts this week, I’d have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bullish case.
Meanwhile, if the 10 year yield closes below 3.25, that would complete a top 6 months in the making. The measured move target would be 2.40.
Hard to believe, Harry.
So on the other hand, if this level holds, and they get it above 3.60, then this 3 month pattern leans toward being a consolidation before a breakout to much higher levels.
Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray!
For moron the markets, see:
- Macro Liquidity Says No Way Jerray! April 4, 2023
- First, the Rally, Then … April 3, 2023
- Gold Takes a Breather Before Lunar Launch March 30, 2023
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Traders, Take Your Naps March 29, 2023
- Watch Out For This If the Market Comes Unstuck March 27, 2023
- How to Play When Fed Changes the Game, Not Just the Rules March 19, 2023
- Systemic Meltdown Under Way As Dead Bodies Finally Start Surfacing March 12, 2023
- February Withholding Taxes Say – Fade the Jobs Report! March 2, 2023
- Here’s Why There Will Never Be Bull Markets Until This One Thing Happens February 26, 2023
- You Can Now Follow the Diabolical Usual Suspects February 16, 2023
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