22 hours ago, fxfox said:Second half of Feb is for SPX historically one of the worst of the whole year…
Yes, and do you know why? Because the largest volume of tax refunds are sent in February. That means the the US Treasury must borrow to cover that, so supply is heavy in February. We’ve seen that in the T-bill issuance calendar for this month. And the Treasury has set policy to continue to sell paper to the public while paying down internal IOUs. So here we are. US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023
They just announced another $23 billion in bill issuance for next week, and we’ve already had a gargantuan calendar this month.
| Date | Security Type | Total Offering | Total Publicly Held Maturing |
Net New Cash or (Pay Down) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/21/2023 | Bills | $171,000 | $147,983 | $23,017 |
| 02/16/2023 | Bills | $133,000 | $98,994 | $34,006 |
| 02/15/2023 | Coupons | $96,000 | $67,118 | $28,882 |
| 02/14/2023 | Bills | $171,000 | $137,980 | $33,020 |
| 02/09/2023 | Bills | $108,000 | $99,009 | $8,991 |
| 02/07/2023 | Bills | $171,000 | $119,988 | $51,012 |
| 02/02/2023 | Bills | $108,000 | $98,997 | $9,003 |
It’s incredible that the stock market hasn’t cracked. But the bond market has, and apparently that has freed up enough liquidity at the margin to drive some rotation into equities. But overall, the bond selloff extinguishes liquidity. For in depth coverage, analycysts and forecast see Liquidity Trader Money Trends
Meanwhile the Triangle pattern we have been watching on the hourly bars of the 24 hour ES, S&P fucutures has been expanding. Instead of breaking and running, they’ve been breaking and whipsawing, all on the upside. Here it is on the 2 hour bars for perspective.
The new Dick Trickle Memorial Point is at 4115 a week from today at 1 PM.
Meanwhile, on the hourly chart, we see incoherence. Overthrows. Whipsaws. Triangles within triangles. But most of the trading has been in the upper half of the largest triangle. Does that suggest upside breakout? I would think so, but really I have no effing clue. We don’t know, and neither do they.
I rather suspect that this will compress and head for the Dick Trickle Memorial Point. If there’s gonna be a downside break, it should come today. The second peak of that regular 4 day cycle that’s been around for a month now, is due now. That means the rest of the day today should be weak. If not, it’s a new bawl game.
Right now, 7:15 AM in New Yak, we’re witnessing a surge to the top of a mini triangle within a triangle within a triangle. 4130 is the upside limit this hour. 4115 is the downside. The next pre Dick Trickle Point fartcall is at 4121 at 9 AM ET. If they break to the upside before that, look for 4145 later this morning. If they break 4115, then the target would be, I dunno, maybe 4094, or the biggie 4075.
Ciao for now!
For moron the markets, see:
- One Gold Indicator Needs to Whipsaw or Will Signal a Secular Top February 14, 2023
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Meat Grinder Prevails February 13, 2023
- How Bears Could Take Charge This Week February 13, 2023
- US Treasury Throws A Shocker to Reverse the Stock Market Outlook February 9, 2023
- Composite Liquidity Should Be Bearish, Here’s Why It’s Not Right Now January 26, 2023
- Withholding Taxes Fell Sharply in January February 3, 2023
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