From what I’m seeing in the Wall Street propaganda sheet Twitter streams, the current market bet is not on a Fed pivot, but a Fed pause.
Or something.
But what difference does it make.
Money talks and BS walks. And all of the speculation on a P, whether pivot or pause, is just that, speculation. Markets can start on speculation, but they don’t finish. The big moves come when the money comes, not before. I can’t think of an instance where any market successfully front ran a Fed policy reversal that actually moved money, instead of “guidance.” Guidance, schmidance.
That doesn’t mean that short squeezes don’t exact pain from bears who are positioned that way. There’s a reason their called “squeezes” and not “hugs.”
Yesterday, my line in the sand for the ES, S&P 500 24 hour fuguetures was 3725. I said they gotta break that in the early going in regular New York trading to get anything going on the downside. They took it to 3726 and no more. That was a sign that the squeeze was still causing brown pants syndrome short covering.
Today’s magic number is 3782 in the opening hour. If they don’t break that, I’ll still be dribbling.
You know, I remember, back in ’77 when I was a broker at Advest in Philly, one of the old guys, a broker in his 80s who had been through the crash, had a ton of bonds in his and his customers’ portfolios. Unfortunately the poor old bastard was incontinent, so he always wore a brown suit to work. It didn’t matter. We still knew. On particularly bad days in the bond market, he’d walk down the aisle between the cubicles dribbling shit on the carpet all the way.
True story.
This market reminds me of that.
Both ways.
Those were the days my friends.
Anyway, 3782 is just for starters. After that, bears need a weak bounce or two to form a nice top on the hourly to get a rollover into some real downside. Barring that, the path of least resistance will remain sideways. And if they clear 3816, up up and away to 3840 next.
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- We Now Know When and Where Gold Will Bottom October 14, 2022
- We Can Now Project When Fed Will Pause, But Not Reverse October 13, 2022
- Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections – Part 2 October 6, 2022
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- Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022
- Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022
- There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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