It’s shocking just how fast market interest rates are rising, as the Fed and its Wall Street lackeys promote the false idea that the Fed is raising rates. The Fed is not raising rates. The market is rising on its own, and the Fed is merely treading the rising tide. And it is drowning because of its own ballast. Even when it releases some and floats toward the surface, its head only rises to just below, not above, the surface.
At the rate this is going, the market will be up 100 basis points at the next FOMC circus. If the Fed goes only 75, it will be further behind the curve.
What exactly is the point of this charade? To support stock prices? It’s clearly not helping the bond market.
But in the short run, day to day, the stock market is often distorted by news noise, whether it be about British politics and their impact on British gilt prices, or Apple cutting production of its core products, or Netfux adding a few subscribers, or some other such irrelevant nonsense. But these things matter only in the day to day. Over the big picture, for the stock market as a whole, only liquidity matters.
In the day to day chart of the 24 hour, hourly ES S&P futures, we’re in another triangular wedge pattern, heading for an apex of 3795 in the wee hours of tomorrow morning. But the 5 day cycle projection is only 3770. The price is hovering just above the lower line of the pattern as of 6:30 AM New Yak Time. It would need to be below 3725 in the opening hour of regular NY trading to break the pattern. As I write this at 6:36 AM ET, it’s at 3730.
So there’s a chance.
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