On the day to day scale that we watch here, it’s true! And if the ES 24 hour S&P futures are above 3630 by the time New Yak pre market trading opens at 8 AM ET, bears could be in some hot water for the next day or couple of days. On the other hand, if the ES is below 3606 bears get the ball back. And below 3580, they’d be driving.
The hourly oscillators are dead neutral, so no help there, but it suggests that whichever way they break, it will be a sizable move.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street captured media still pretends to believe the Fed’s show of controlling interest rates. It’s just silly.
I saw a tweet this morning that the market has “priced in” 75 basis points. What do they mean priced in? The price is the price. The rate is the price. It’s the market. It’s been obvious through this entire cycle that the Fed just follows the market. It’s always late, and it never catches up.
The money markets are tight and constantly getting tighter. Interest rates, such as that on the 13 week T-bill, which is a more or less real market, are the meter of market tightness. The Fed’s changes in the Fed Funds target are not a real rate. There’s no real Fed Funds market. Reserves remain plentiful, as evidenced by the $2.3 trillion that various money holders have deposited in the Fed’s RRPs. Only troubled banks borrow in the rigged Fed Funds market.
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- Swing Trade Screens – Plunging in on the Short Side October 11, 2022
- Market Reaches Do or Die, Right Here October 10, 2022
- Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections – Part 2 October 6, 2022
- Look Out For the Real Fallout of Declining Withholding Tax Collections October 5, 2022
- Swing Trade Screens – Beware! This Swing is Old October 3, 2022
- Stocks Have Much At Stake Right Now October 2, 2022
- Gold Reason to Hope No Reason for Optimism September 30, 2022
- Markets Face Catastrophe as Dealers Mitigate Too Little Too Late September 26, 2022
- Fed Speeds Into Dead Man’s Curve, More Black Tuesdays Ahead September 15, 2022
- There Will Be More Black Tuesdays September 14, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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