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Weak Jobs Data Will Surprise Market, Trigger Rally in Bonds and Stocks 9/2/22

I just updated the withholding tax data for August, with that data now complete for the month.

It looks weak. I’ll have more in a full report to follow later today.  Normally the month end data is out a few days before the BLS (Bureau of Liar Statistics) NFP (Non Factual Payrolls) data. This month, that data as finished only as of last night, too late for me, here in Europe, to update until this morning. That said, the July data was solid and it often feels to me as though the BLS data lags the 12th of the month data collection date to correlate more with the end of the prior month, not the current month.

Withholding Tax Collections Collapsed in August But BLS Data Won’t Show It

Meanwhile, the futures are perfectly positioned to go either way!

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