That’s right. It’s whenever FxFox shows up here. Its record is 100%. The FxFox indicator is one of the best contrarian indicators on the planet. When Foxy starts posting on the Stool, cover all your shorts and go long with both fists. Rule Number One: Don’t fight the Fed. Rule Number Two: The trend is your friend. Rule Number 3: When FxFox appears, run for cover. 😄😄😄
Do your own due diligence!
Meanwhile,
Calculated New Cash/Pay Down Amounts
(All values in Millions of Dollars)
In the Security Type column, Coupons include Notes, Bonds, FRNs, and TIPS.
| Date | Security Type | Total Offering | Total Publicly Held Maturing |
Net New Cash or (Pay Down) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/26/2022 | Bills | $135,000 | $94,994 | $40,006 |
Whoa. That’ll leave a mark.
This confirms my analysis and forecast that the T-bill paydowns would end in late July.
As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time
Meanwhile, let’s start our usual very short term look at the US market with a zoomed out view of the 5 hour bars on the ES, S&P futures, or fuguetures, as the case may be.
The market is in the process of breaking out of the downtrend channel from the March high. That’s huge from both an intraday perspective, and intermediate term. As I’ve recently ranted, not just the liquidity data has been bullish, the technical data has been bullish for weeks.
So don’t complain, my fellow bearmerkans and other assorted miscreants. You must follow the first commandment. Thou shalt not shit in the woods. Because bear markets never go straight down for extended periods. In fact, they spend more time going up than down.
However, we note that the 5 hour bar oscillators are at levels where past short term peaks have occurred. So there’s that.
On the hourly bars, the base breakout still has that conventional measurement of 4075, or perhaps 4100. That has no timing implication, other than it should bear some semblance to the size of the base. That means within 2-3 weeks. It could be tomorrow. Or maybe not. I don’t know about where you are but tomorrow is Saturday here in France. We sit on the terrace and grab a glass.
There’s currently no 5 day cycle projection. The 2-3 day cycle projection is 4000. But of course. Or as we say in fronsay, “Mais, bien sur.”
They already hit it overnight. New York should join the party this morning.
To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following:
- Catch a Falling Knife July 19, 2022
- Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday July 18, 2022
- Major Swing Cycles Align for an Up Phase July 18, 2022
- As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022
- Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022
- Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022
- Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022
- We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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