I don’t know.
The Fed is still tight. At all those other bottoms the Fed had turned to easing.
Rule Number One. Don’t fight the Fed.
Do I respect technical data? Yes. Is there a first time for everything. Uh… yeah.
I’ll call it based on the analytical tools I used. I’ve been calling short to intermediate bottom for weeks. That’s as far as the current data will allow me to go. The Fed, and current inflation readings, have told us that more tightening is ahead.
More tightening ahead.
Don’t fight the Fed.
More tightening ahead.
Don’t fight the Fed.
So, last night the 24 hour ES S&P futures hit the 5 day cycle projection of 3950. It was a done deal once they cleared resistance at 3905. Last night the futures also hit a 2-3 day cycle projection of 3963.
This move is done. It’s time for consolidation. But the high base breakout conventional measured move target is still 4075. I’m not holding my breath that it will happen today.
At 4:15 AM sport lines on the hourly chart show up at 3936 and 3928. If they hold above that this morning, they’ll try the upside again. Whether it extends or not will depend on the battle of newly established resistance at 3961. Stay tuned for all that.
To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following:
- Catch a Falling Knife July 19, 2022
- Survive the Meat Grinder and Market Will Gladly Pay Us Back on Tuesday July 18, 2022
- Major Swing Cycles Align for an Up Phase July 18, 2022
- As Good As it Gets, Before the End of Time July 18, 2022
- Are the Fed and Treasury Geniuses, or Just Lucky? Part One July 12, 2022
- Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022
- Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022
- We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022
If you’re serious about the underlying forces of supply and demand that drive the markets, join me!
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