In the matter of Recession? What Recession? I got the following question from esteemed Stoolie, Potatohead.
7 hours ago, potatohead said:would the sharp rise in withholding be due to the seasonal wave of summer job hiring of students?
Good question. It’s an annual rate of change, so there’s no seasonality, but this year was an enormous surge from last year, so it still contradicts the idea that the economy is entering recession. Business showed no sign of caution in adding payrolls or boosting pay, or both. A 20% y/y surge in the last week of the month is notable.
However, I also noted that this strength is unlikely to show up in Friday’s jobs report because it’s based on a survey date early in the month, for starters. And there are other reasons.
Meanwhile, back at the charts, yesterday we got a V bottom from a significant sport line, and they took it back to the first concentrated conjunction of resistance lines around 3835-55. There they tried and tried again, but failed to make a higher high, and as of 5 AM New York time, have turned tail.
But bears have accomplished nothing unless they take out 3805 on the downside for starters. That would probably keep the playing field locked into the 3740-3845 range for the short run. If they don’t break below 3805 then we turn our lonely eyes back to 3855. A breakout would have a measured move target of 3950. Bulls would be in charge.
To better understand the big picture right now so that you can take the correct action when the time is right, check out the following:
- Recession? What Recession? July 5, 2022
- For Swing Trades this Week, It’s Politics As Unusual July 5, 2022
- US Stock Market Celebrates the Froth of July July 4, 2022
- Gold Nears Triggers That Would Signal Brutal Outlook June 29, 2022
- Stocks Are Even More “Dover Sole” Versus Liquidity June 28, 2022
- We Knew QT Would Be Devastating, But You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet June 21, 2022
- Dealers Assume the Position, as 75 BPs Coming Wednesday June 13, 2022
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