I don’t want to scare my fellow bears, but this the pattern on the ES S&P 24 hour futures chart is still bullish… Potentially. That is, unless and until it posts an hourly close below 4434. Until then, for day traders and other short term oriented loons, it’s probably best to keep the short powder dry.
The other thing to worry about is that an hourly close above 4470.2 would have a conventional measured move implication of 4580. First they’d need to cross trend and level resistance around 4475-80. If they clear. I think that getting out of that obvious base pattern would give them the impetus to enable that.
Now, of course an upside breakout isn’t guaranteed, so here’s what to look for on the downside. First, they’d need to have that hourly close below 4434. Then, they’d need to break the 3 day cycle sport line, which will be around 4430 as of the NY open. If that happens, bears have a chance. But I still don’t like the odds for the next 4 weeks.
Keep in mind that liquidity is currently very, very bullish. And that liquidity sure as hell ain’t flowing into bonds.
The big picture:
- Swing Trade Chart Pick Screens Flip to Buy SideApril 18, 2022
- The Dow, Macro Liquidity, and the Fate of Russian Generals April 18, 2022
- Stocks Are Not Breaking Bad April 16, 2022
- Sell Gold in May and Go Away? April 19, 2022
- Primary Dealers Still Long and Wrong, But A Gift Rally Looms! April 11, 2022
- Why March Withholding Taxes Showing Red Hot Economy Is Bearish April 3, 2022
- Fragile and Dangerous Semi Blind Spot March 28, 2022
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam filter.
