You can see it clearly on the hourly chart of the ES, S&P futures. The market has been cycling like clockwork every 3-4 days. Overnight they completed another downleg, exceeding the 5 day cycle projection of 4400 I posted at the close of regular trading in New York yesterday. Now they’re on their way back up.
But how far. With 3 downlegs complete, can we expect a bit more upside this time?
Much depends on what happens when the get to that multiline convergence around 4430. If that holds, then the bears are very much in charge. But my guess is that they’ll get through that, and then target 4450. If they clear 4440, that would have a conventional measured move implication of 4495.
First they’d need to clear the key trendline at 4470 later today. How likely is any of that? Based on the hourly cycle oscillators making new lows and not forming any positive divergences yet, I’d say, not very. I think they’ll roll over again below 4440, then we’ll see if the price pattern and the oscillators set up more bullishly on the next pullback.
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