At 6:40 AM in New York, we’ve had a slight break of the latest, sharpest uptrend channel on the hourly ES 24 hour S&P futures chart. It’s not a material break yet. I would consider the uptrend intact until the price drops below 4605. Even that would be a long way from signaling a downtrend.
To even think about that, I’d need to see trading below 4575 during regular trading hours. There are 5 lines of sport between current levels and there.
On the other hand, if the futures trade above 4640, it will be up, up and away again. The 5 day cycle projection range of 4665-80 would be a likely target.
Sigh.
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Meanwhile, Buttcoin (BTC) has risen to multiple resistance levels, including its 200 day MA. If BTC clears 50,000, crypto bears like me are going to look pretty foolish.
The Euro has inflicted a knife wound on shorts the past two days. I was a buyer yesterday. I still need to move about 60% of the amount I need for my real estate purchase in France. It just got a whole lot more expensive.
Today is a day of wishin’ and hopin’. Wishin and hopin that a reversal develops below 1.1166. I’ve been reduced to watching the 5 minute bars during the day.
Realistically, I don’t think my chances are good. If there’s no break of the uptrend today, I’ll have to go all in. A strong EUR/USD will be a long term problem for me. I’ll need to become a currency futures hedger, I guess. One more layer of work that I don’t need.
A tout à l’heure.
