The hourly chart of the ES, S&P 500 says it all. The market is on the cusp of another upside breakout. Should it clear 4546 today, there’s a vacuum overhead until around 4582. The 5 day cycle projection is 4600-4610.
You can also see the open space when zooming out to a 5 hour bar perspective. I don’t even want to talk about the measured move implication of the base breakout. That’s longer term stuff that I’ll keep to the weekly Technical Trader updates.
Meanwhile, the 10 year Treasury yield is threatening to blast off to the moon. The next few days are very bearish for the bond market, then there’s 6-7 weeks of relief coming.
Surprise, surprise, Buttcoin has broken out of a monster reversal pattern with a conventional measured move target of 55,000. But it fades heavy resistance around 50,000 first. If it consolidates there and hangs around 55k would be in the bag on the next move. It would need to fall back below 45k to reverse the implications of this pattern. Cycle and momentum indicators are as bullish as it gets.
The EUR/USD is consolidating around $1.10. But for what? I need to hedge the purchase of my apartment here in NIce, due to close in June. I’ll be a buyer of EUR on a move above 1.1050, or below 1.08.
I have already had tremendous appreciation of my USD holdings vs. the EUR over the past year. Now I’m forced to lock that in, which I suppose is a good thing.
I’ll continue to earn my income in dollars so this will be an ongoing one way trade. The only question is the timing of EUR purchases required to cover living expenses and any additional investments I would want to make here.
Not sure what that might be. I had loved the idea of holiday rental property investment, but European municipal governments are doing their best to destroy that market. They are either virtually outlawing short term rentals or severely restricting them.
The Nice city government just passed such a law in the last month. The politicians have sided with the hotel businesses who lobbied for these laws. Small investors who paid top dollar and established portfolios of holiday rental apartments here in Nice are in for a world of hurt.
I think that these cities will find some very unpleasant unintended consequences as a result of these laws that don’t just harm small investors, but essentially could destroy them. Do they think that the hotel companies will benefit enough to offset that? I think they’re in for a surprise, as thousands of rental units are forced onto the market, depressing prices.
And now, the rest of the story.
- Screens Be Nimble, Screens Be Quick – They Were! March 27, 2022
- Here’s Why This Will Be “The Rally that Fools the Majority” March 26, 2022
- Seven and a Half Weeks of Bullish Liquidity Ahead March 19, 2022
- Give It To Me One More Time, Goldie March 21, 2022
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