I live in Europe, but earn my income in US doodahs, and hold cash and other assets in USD. So, in a sense, I am effectively short the euro on balance. There have been times where that has worked well for me, and other times where it hasn’t.
Since I’ve been traveling, I haven’t tried to time the swings in the currency. But now that I’m settling down in Nice, I intend to purchase an apartment here. And I also want to hedge against the rally in the euro that is sure to come. It’s like an extra added layer of inflation for me on top of rising prices here. I went through it in Croatia last year when the euro rallied to around 1.25. I definitely felt the pinch.
So I’m watching the currency closely. I’ll be buying euros when there are signs of a reversal in the EUR/USD.
The euro is crashing and is now targeting 108 on the basis of 3 month and 6 month cycle projections. A one year cycle projection points to around 106.
Trend support is at 109.8 today. If that breaks, the next target trendline would be around 108.5 in the next couple of days. If the euro bounces off that first trendline, any rebound that rolls over below 111.7 would be bearish. If they clear that, then I’d look for a move to the 1.13 area as the next target.
