I’m not saying that I know which way they’ll break, just that today could be the day. The hourly charts of the ES, S&P 500 futures are extremely neutral. Is that even possible? Extremely neutral?
But that’s where the hourly oscillators are. They’ve come down to around their zero lines, which is where they troughed 2 days ago. Any additional decline from here, coupled with an hourly close below 4279 would suggest more downside, possibly severe. The conventional measured move implication of such a breakdown would be around 4150.
Looking the other way, if the ES is above 4344 at 10 AM in New York, that would break the 1 day downtrend, and allow for a move back toward the top of the range at 4421.6. The range has been crossed multiple times over the past week. It’s likely to be thin. The market could zip back to the top of the range quickly.
Getting out the top would be a whole nudder story.
Looking at the two day wave pattern over the past week, it suggests a little bit of upside this morning, then down in the afternoon. But ear regardless, all trading within the range is noise. We need a breakout for a strong signal of a move that will last more than an hour.
Meanwhile, the big picture:
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