From the perspective of the 2 hour bars on the 24 hour ES S&P futures, it looks like it could be. But then again, there are multiple short term downtrend channels that have yet to be broken. And when bottoms like these drop out, the market can crash. Crashes are exceedingly rare events, but this is the type of setup that can spawn one.
So we wait. Tick tock.
Zooming in to the one hour bars, we can better see two levels that the ES must break to break the downtrend: 4340 and 4365. Failing that, the risk of a crash would remain in place.
As of 3:10 AM New York Time, the hourly oscillators were on the buy side, and the 5 day cycle projection was around 4375. That suggests that the downtrend will be broken. Clearing 4365 would set up a new short term uptrend. The initial target would be the resistance convergence around 4385-95.
Meanwhile, the big picture:
Crash is Now a Coin Flip
Primary Dealers Are STILL Positioned WRONG!
Gold Breakout Points To More, Miners Swing Picks Look Good
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