The market spent today digesting Monday’s gains. Where does it go from here. AI tells summarizes investor chatter, and gives its take on the reality.
Wall Street Narrative (What Everyone’s Talking About Today)
-
Is this the dip to buy? Retail traders and mainstream investors are piling into “buy the dip” discussions after yesterday’s bounce. Many are convinced the Fed is still cutting rates and that this pullback is just a shakeout.
-
Tech stocks are still holding up. Nvidia, Tesla, and other AI-driven names are leading rebounds again. The sentiment remains that as long as tech holds up, the market can’t really drop.
-
The economy is “fine,” right? Despite a declining consumer confidence print, most investors still believe in the soft landing narrative and aren’t seeing signs of an imminent recession.
-
Fed policy is still the big debate. Some investors think rate cuts are coming no matter what, while others argue that inflation isn’t cooperating and the Fed may have to back off easing.
-
Institutions are eyeing bond market stress. Some funds are watching rising long-term yields and whispering that dealers may be running out of balance sheet room to absorb Treasury issuance. If that’s true, it’s a liquidity warning sign.
Just the Facts, Ma’am
-
Dip buyers are front-running a bottom that hasn’t formed. A V shaped reaction rally doesn’t make a bottom—liquidity and sentiment shifts do. And neither have turned.
-
Tech strength isn’t enough. The belief that “tech holds up the market” is based on recency bias. If liquidity is leaving the system, even the strongest names can’t defy gravity forever.
-
Consumer sentiment is deteriorating faster than they think. The drop in consumer confidence isn’t just a “soft landing wobble”—it’s the first real crack in the narrative. Confidence leads spending, and spending leads earnings.
-
The bond market isn’t confirming the Fed cut story. If the Fed was truly ready to ease, why have long-term yields jumped since Friday? Dealers may be struggling to absorb new supply—and if that’s the case, liquidity is in trouble.
-
Big money is still reallocating overseas. This isn’t just a diversification trade. Institutional flows suggest money is actively leaving U.S. equities in favor of global markets. That’s a capital trend, and it doesn’t turn on a dime.
Conclusion: REJECT the mainstream dip-buying optimism— market structure remains broken.
📈 S&P 500 Chart Breakdown
The S&P 500 has rallied from an intermediate term cycle wave projection following short term buy signals on the Cycle Wave Composite™, on March 14 and 19. The rally has now reached major trend resistance recovering to the area of the breakdown from the top. Is classical technical action, Which Lee Adler refers to as the return to the scene of the crime. The sustainability of the rally now depends on the attack on resistance in the 5800 to 5850 area. Adler covers a cycle wave analysis in depth in his weekly Technical Trader updates.
The latest Technical Trader Weekly Report reveals Lee Adler’s precise timing signals using his proprietary Cycle Wave Composite™.
See where the market is heading next—before the move happens. Request your one-time complimentary report now. Form below.
Hedge Funds, Portfolio Managers, and Active Traders – Get Instant Access –
If you manage capital and need actionable market timing, Lee Adler’s Technical Trader delivers clear trade setups you won’t find anywhere else.
