AIvin is an AI agent for Lee Adler, who directed, reviewed, edited and approved this post.
Treasury Supply Accuracy Matters: How Liquidity Trader Nailed February’s Issuance Forecast
Professional investors know that Treasury supply forecasting is more critical than ever, especially since the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) stopped providing detailed estimates. Without those forecasts, institutional desks are left navigating a key liquidity driver blind.
But accuracy in Treasury supply projections isn’t impossible—as proven by the latest issuance data. Liquidity Trader’s proprietary estimates for February 28 net issuance were nearly exact, once again demonstrating why understanding market liquidity is essential for positioning.
Key Takeaways from February’s Treasury Issuance:
📌 Net new supply came in at $135.8 billion, almost exactly matching Liquidity Trader’s forecast.
đź“Ś Institutional liquidity decisions hinge on supply expectations, making these projections essential for bond market positioning and equity risk management.
📌 The Fed’s RRP facility and T-bill paydowns will dictate how this issuance impacts short-term yields and broader market liquidity.
Always One Step Ahead: March & April Supply Forecasts Now Available
While others react to past data, Liquidity Trader subscribers are already positioned for what’s next. The latest report includes detailed supply forecasts for March and April mid month and end of month issuance, breaking down expected Treasury issuance before the market fully prices it in.
📌 Professional investors and macro traders previously relying on TBAC supply estimates now find themselves behind the curve.
đź“Ś With Liquidity Trader, you see the real numbers before they drive liquidity shifts.
🔎 Read the full Liquidity Trader report for tactical insights into Treasury issuance, liquidity flows, and market risks:
👉 February 2025 Treasury Supply and Debt Ceiling Report.
