The hourly chart of the ES has that launchpad look again. It needs to close below 5622 today for us to even start thinking about a reversal. Meanwhile, there’s a 5 day cycle projection of 5695. There may be some resistance at 5655 and 5667. Higher for Longer
Yesterday the market absorbed a light $31 billion in new Treasury coupon issuance. Over the balance of the week it will get hit with 43 billion in new T-bills. That cuts both ways. Buyers must pay for them, but they are perfect collateral and therefore can be immediately lent in return for cash with a minimal haircut. Therefore, what happens next depends not on the Fed, or Treasury supply, but on how the market feels about it. Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller
July has seen heavy T-bill issuance but light coupon issuance. The T-bills haven’t phased the market one iota. I guess that T-bill buyers are using the carry trade to fund long term Treasury purchases. Today, that trade has reached an inflection point. Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller
For moron the markets, see:
CURRENT REPORTS
- Swing Trade Screen Picks – Holding the Averages Versus Picking Swing Trades July 14, 2024
- Higher for Longer July 14, 2024
- Picking Up Nickels in Front of a Steamroller July 9, 2024
- Gold Raises the Bar July 9, 2024
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