Mo Money 6/14/24

The T-bill paydown announcements are not only coming fast and furious, they’re getting bigger. When it comes to June estimated tax receipts, the US Treasury must like the way they look.

Once they put that $68 billion coupon issue to bed on Monday, hard on its heels $34 billion in cash will be coming back to investor and dealer accounts. Money money money money! And there’s more on the way. Plus there were $36 billion in paydowns in the first half of the month that should help a lot in absorbing that coupon issue.  May Tax Collections Were Super Bullish

Net Cash Pay Down in Millions of Dollars, by Date

Date	Security Type	Total Offering	Total Publicly Held Maturing	Net New Cash or (Pay Down)
06/20/2024	Bills	$200,000	$218,976	$(18,976)
06/18/2024	Bills	$200,000	$214,948	$(14,948)
06/17/2024	Coupons	$119,000	$50,468	$68,532

With all this cash coming back to investors over the next few weeks, it would not surprise me to see a 4% yield on the 10 year again. First they’d need to break 4.18. With a $68 billion settlement due Monday, I’m not sure that’s doable, but we’ll see soon enough.

Meanwhile, our hourly chart of the ES is waffling, breaking trendlines as it moves sideways in a range. It just broke it a hair. It would be more interesting if it breaks 5393 by the NY open, or 5392 by the close. The Top Must Wait

Running my swing trade candidate screens this morning from yesterday’s closing prices there were 143 sell trend setups of which 12 triggered. Big jump from yesterday’s numbers 51 and 4. On the buy side there were 43 buy setups, just 2 triggered. That compares with 68 and 6 yesterday.

The times they are a changin.

Maybe.

Swing Trade Screen Picks – Had the Plot, But Not the Right Actors

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