Fooled by the Dot Plot- 4/18/24

I’m not sure I understand everything Jimbo says here, but it’s definitely worth thinking about.

  7 hours ago, Jimbo said:

FOOLED BY THE DOT PLOT

(Alternative title: How to play the players 101)

So the much anticipated slam dunk sure thing long bond rally fades into the monetary distance as print boy jay layers on the synthetic QT.

It was always a mirage with a 2 trillion defecit.

And once again the FED has played the players.

Reminds me so much of the sure thing slam dunk treasury short play of mid 23…riding the treasuries issue flood…until they realised…..the rrp was their doom.

Notice how the Eccles Ecclesiarch layers on the synthetic QE (the dot plot) and QT (we must fight inflation first) in alternating layers.

Using it to play the players.

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But it looks like it’s time for a little rally in Treasuries as T-bill paydowns temporarily flood investor accounts with excess cash.

 

A couple weeks of dropping yields to come.  Warning Signs Abound, But Ignore Them for Now

Does similar logic apply to stocks? One More Rally To Go

As for the intraday stuff, every time I spy a bottom on the ES 24 hour S&P futures, it turns out to be a mirage. I’ve been hallucinating. Now it looks as though the market has been in a 5 day cycle flat up phase since Monday evening.

If this is the up phase, I can’t wait to see the down.

If they break 5005, the first step looks like 4975. To make that moot, they would need to clear 5045 on the upside.

Zooming out to 5 hour bars, you can see why I like 4975 as a target. But you can also see an impressive top pattern with a conventional measured move target of 4850.  Since nobody believes this selloff, including me, ergo, nobody is short. And if nobody is short, then he won’t be covering on the way down. Only nobody knows what nobody is thinking. So I’ll let the screens do the picking and hope they keep on ticking. Swing Trade Screen Picks – List Shrinks With Good Profits

For moron the markets, see: