Today’s lesson. When you live in France, never take the evening off to go out to dinner, when Odd Uncle Jerry is having one of his weird Wall Street media kiddie porn shows.
I as yet have no idea what he said that triggered this, but the pickings were apparently ripe. Frankly, I missed the signs. There were warnings in the liquidity picture that suggested that a top could be at hand, but the technical timing suggested otherwise. I cast my lot with the technical. Barring a miraculous recovery today, that was just fucking stupid.
Approaching 6 AM ET, the market continues to sink, with the ES, 24 hour S&P fuguetures pointing to 2-3 day and 5 day cycle projections of 4380, or possibly 4360 on the 5 day. We’re there now with 3 day and 5 day cycle lows a bit overdue. That’s ideally speaking.
Anyone who came back from dinner with their longs still on is shitting blood and praying for a bounce right now. Shape of the 6-month Cycle Bottom
Meanwhile, the 10 year yield looks like the big show with an enormous high base breakout over the past couple of days. It measures to 5.40. Without policy easing, that won’t be the end of it either as I have been shrilly warning since Q3 2020 in Liquidity Trader. Update coming soon. Keep your dial set here and stay tuned.
Or in terms of price, TLT chart not showing the breakdown yet, but you get the idea.
For moron the markets, see:
- Screen Picks – An Awful Week, But Hold On a Minute! September 18, 2023
- Shape of the 6-month Cycle Bottom September 17, 2023
- Gold Teeters Toward Disaster September 13, 2023
- Here’s Why This Stuck Market Is Not Surprising September 13, 2023
- Beware! Jobs Really Much Weaker Than They Say September 4, 2023
- Here’s Why This Is a No Clickbait Market for Primary Dealers August 24, 2023
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