When I found out yesterday. I heard it through the grapevine that the market flashed a big sign.
That’s right. The market made a top and broke down without so much as the by-your-leave, obligatory bounce from spport that I was looking for. So much for that. The breakdown has a conventional measured move target of 4470. The 5 day and 2-3 day cycle projection of 4495 is done.
Here’s the hourly chart of the ES, 24 hour S&P 500 futures. It looks like they gotta get above 4510 this morning, or 4490 by the end of the New York trading day to reverse this. The next spport level below 4488 is around 4470. Rally is Tired But Here’s Why Not to Go Short
Here’ the 2 hour bar perspective. Question is, are they drawing a bead on 4455?
Here’s the Treasury market reaction to yesterday’s quarterly refunding announcement. Breakout on the 10 year yield means breakdown in price. The hedge funds massive, record short hedge is still working, amazingly enough, but Primary Dealers are not particularly well hedged, and remain heavily leverage long on balance. Aye, there’s the rub. Let the Scary Pictures On Primary Dealer Financing Do the Talking
I will be working on an update of the Treasury supply data, and the current real time withholding and other tax collections picture this evening. Hopefully will have a post on that tomorrow AM. Here’s last month’s withholding data. We were warned that the economy was strengthening in contrast to all the soothsayer hand wringing. Facts is facts, and that’s all we are interested in. Just the facts, M’am. Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22
For moron the markets, see:
- Gold’s Pain in the Bottom August 2, 2023
- Thanks But No Thanks August 1, 2023
- Let the Scary Pictures On Primary Dealer Financing Do the Talking July 31, 2023
- Rally is Tired But Here’s Why Not to Go Short July 30, 2023
- Correlations Don’t Matter Until They Do, Like Now July 23, 2023
- Withholding Tax Rebound Sets Up a Bearish Fed Catch 22 July 6, 2023
- It’s Not Your Daddy’s Liquidity Anymore July 5, 2023
- We Now Know What is Driving the Rally June 20, 2023
- The Fed’s Slush Fund is Working June 16, 2023
If you are a new visitor to the Stool, please register and join in! To post your observations and charts, and snide, but good-natured, comments, click here to register. Be sure to respond to the confirmation email which is sent instantly. If not in your inbox, check your spam folder.
